Bank of America story updated with Wednesday's price action in the 13th paragraph..
NEW YORK (TheStreet) -Bank of America may have had a dismal 2011, but you haven't seen nothing yet.
The thinking on Bank of America has long been that valuations are so low, the stock can't get any lower--and then lower it goes. The problem, by and large, has been mortgage risk. Bank of America can't ever seem to get a handle on how much exposure it has. The number just keeps growing and growing.
But that won't be the problem in 2012. As the famous saying goes--you don't know who isn't wearing swimming trunks until the tide goes out. In this case, however, we do know: it's Bank of America. And things have been so bad for the bank--not only in 2011 but ever since the crisis--that we tend to forget that the tide hasn't even gone out yet. We've had a serious crisis in Europe, massive political instability in the Middle East and Russia and a recession in the U.S. and the S&P 500 is only down 2.53%.Some may see this as a sign of the market's resilience, but that would be a mistake. Investors are still counting on the European crisis resolving itself. They are betting that European governments believe they have too much to lose by not eventually creating euro bonds. But as Financial Times managing editor Gillian Tett explained on Charlie Rose last week, look how hard it was for former Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson to get the "bazooka" he needed from Congress to restore investor confidence in U.S. markets. "I mean if you get, have problems getting one person for a bazooka, try to think about 17 people for a bazooka [that will shoot] in a straight line." The 17 people, of course, are the 17 countries that use the Euro. If you think getting the U.S. Congress to agree on anything is tough, you haven't seen a thing. What that means is that--even if we don't see Greece move back to the Drachma, leading to a military coup, as was postulated in The New York Times Tuesday day, we are likely to come far closer than we have so far. That means a sharp market selloff at the very least, by which I mean a 5% plus drop in the S&P 500 in a single day and volatility reminiscent of what we saw in 2008. If you think that means good things for Bank of America stock you are sadly mistaken.
Select the service that is right for you!COMPARE ALL SERVICES
Jim Cramer and Stephanie Link actively manage a real portfolio and reveal their money management tactics while giving advanced notice before every trade.
- $2.5+ million portfolio
- Large-cap and dividend focus
- Intraday trade alerts from Cramer
- Weekly roundups
Access the tool that DOMINATES the Russell 2000 and the S&P 500.
- Buy, hold, or sell recommendations for over 4,300 stocks
- Unlimited research reports on your favorite stocks
- A custom stock screener
- Upgrade/downgrade alerts
Jim Cramer's protege, David Peltier, identifies the best of breed dividend stocks that will pay a reliable AND significant income stream.
- Diversified model portfolio of dividend stocks
- Alerts when market news affect the portfolio
- Bi-weekly updates with exact steps to take - BUY, HOLD, SELL
All of Real Money, plus 15 more of Wall Street's sharpest minds delivering actionable trading ideas, a comprehensive look at the market, and fundamental and technical analysis.
- Real Money + Doug Kass + 15 more Wall Street Pros
- Intraday commentary & news
- Ultra-actionable trading ideas
Our options trading pros provide daily market commentary and over 100 monthly option trading ideas and strategies to help you become a well-seasoned trader.
- 100+ monthly options trading ideas
- Actionable options commentary & news
- Real-time trading community
- Options TV