Emerging Markets Still a Good Long-Term Bet
Yet the problems in some of the countries cut deeper than reverberations from Europe's sovereign debt issues and the inability of the U.S. to find its way through a $15 trillion debt and $1.3 trillion budget deficit.
In South America, for instance, leftist governments "have not moderated their platforms after winning elections," according to an analysis from Bank of America Merrill Lynch. Venezuelan leader Hugo Chavez, for instance, has sought to stem inflation with price controls that have produced shortages and, consequently, only more inflation.
Analysts predict inflation this year of close to 30% in Venezuela.
"We expect significant fiscal expansion, including additional minimum wage increases, ahead of next year's elections, to put upward pressure on prices," Credit Suisse analyst Casey Reckman said in a research note. "Unless accompanied by subsidized imports or devaluation, wide-ranging price controls could induce additional shortages, hoarding and informal market activity at higher prices."In Russia, recent elections indicated a political turning of the tide similar to what happened in Arab countries earlier this year, when populist movements unseated authoritarian governments. While it's too early to tell whether the upheaval will be on the same scale, changes clearly are coming to Russia that could cause destabilization in what was considered a significant global growth area. "The developments in Russia highlight some of the key themes that we think will shape the year ahead: the necessity of understanding public opinion, the myth of permanent political stability, the rise of new political actors and the importance of maintaining the support of the middle class, who increasingly demand new social contracts between government and society," Citigroup analyst Tina M. Fordham said in a note. "As we head into a year marked by elections, including in Russia, investors must take note of the lessons of the Arab Spring, and prepare for a Russian Winter," Fordham added. Also, news out of Brazil Tuesday that gross domestic product actually contracted 0.04% in the previous quarter provided yet another shock. Of course, China also is causing concern, though relatively speaking: The world's second-largest economy still grew 2.3% in the previous quarter, indicating that the nation, like its Asian counterparts, may just be taking a breather until the global tumult subsides. "The issue for 2012 is whether this disappointing performance will worsen as contagion and recession spread or policy action will help to stabilize and improve returns," BofA analyst Claudio Piron said in an analysis of Asian fixed income. "We believe policy and fundamentals will ultimately prevail." -- Written by Jeff Cox, senior writer, CNBC.com
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