The fears surrounding Guess? (GES) are expected to perpetuate into 2012. Shares of the apparel retailer have fallen 38% for the year, weighed down by uncertain economic conditions in Europe.
Guess? generates more than 40% of its sales from Europe, and management noted that it posted negative same-store sales in Italy and France during the third quarter.
The company is expecting a weak holiday season, as consumers are responding negatively to a slowdown in discounts and promotions. "It's typically a good thing when a retailer pares back on discounting, but Guess? won't be successful because the rest of the specialty space is still highly promotional," says Brian Sozzi, RealMoney contributor and chief business development officer at Nothing But Gold Productions.As a result, analysts expect Guess? will lose market share to rivals like True Religion Apparel (TRLG) (one of the top performing stocks of 2011). For the fourth quarter, Guess predicts earnings in the range of $1.03 to $1.09 a share on revenue of $780 million to $795 million. Wall Street was calling for a profit of $1.21 a share on revenue of $816 million. But Jefferies analyst Randal Konik says the company is not in that bad of a position, as its women's business is improving in the U.S.
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