What would your criteria be for buying gold somewhere near a bottom?
Rogers: Well if gold were $1,200, I would rush out and put a lot of money into gold. And that's not such a strange statement, by the way. Many assets go down 40% or 50% over a year or two period. That's not unusual at all. In the 70's gold went up 600%, went down 50% -- scared everybody out. After everybody got scared and sold, it went up 850%. That's not unusual in markets. So if gold went down a lot, I'd buy a lot more. If it went down, I don't know, $1,500, I'd certainly start buying. If it went to $1,400, I'd buy more and if I was still solvent at $1,200 or $1,100, I would buy a lot more.
Speaking of $1,200, it would break a long term trend line, a lot of traders would be scared of it because the chart would look broken. What would $1,200 gold mean?
Rogers: Well, see you know all of these things about charts. I don't know all this stuff. I don't pay attention to them. But it certainly scared them in the 1970's when gold went down 50%, I guess it broke all the charts and scared everybody and they sold out.All it would mean is that some speculators were dumping their gold or losing their faith. Right now we've got a lot of correction in the commodities markets because MF Global went bankrupt and there's a lot of forced, artificial liquidation but liquidation is liquidation whether it's artificial or not. And that's what happening. If gold went to $1200, it might just mean that -- that there was forced selling. A lot of people say, gold's not at $2,000 and it should be because Europe is falling off a cliff. Rogers: For whatever reason, gold is not at $2,000 with Europe falling off a cliff like you said. But as I said, I own the euro. I expect them to paper it over for at least for a while. Maybe that's why gold is not at $2000. Let's say on that logic -- let's say that Merkel does something that seems reasonable and logical and everybody says the worst is over. Stocks around the world will go up including in the U.S. I'll lose money on my shorts. Gold will possibly go down too. Then combined with forced liquidation and if you have somebody else who is over extended and they would have to dump their gold. You can come up with all kinds of scenarios. You are a reporter, that's what you are paid to do. You come up with the scenarios; I am just a simple investor. What's your gold outlook for 2012. What do you think is going to happen in the market? Rogers: I don't have one. You should watch TheStreet.com. I don't have one. I am a terrible trader in the short term and I am a horrible market timer. If you had to pick one commodity, you had to own right now, if you could only pick one, what would it be? Rogers: Well, it would be agriculture -- something in agriculture. U.S. Going back to the U.S., what should the Federal Reserve do at their upcoming meeting, aside from quantitative easing round three, or QE3. We've seen more Fed presidents come out and call for more monetary easing. What should they really do?
Select the service that is right for you!COMPARE ALL SERVICES
- $2.5+ million portfolio
- Large-cap and dividend focus
- Intraday trade alerts from Cramer
- Weekly roundups
Access the tool that DOMINATES the Russell 2000 and the S&P 500.
- Buy, hold, or sell recommendations for over 4,300 stocks
- Unlimited research reports on your favorite stocks
- A custom stock screener
- Upgrade/downgrade alerts
- Diversified model portfolio of dividend stocks
- Alerts when market news affect the portfolio
- Bi-weekly updates with exact steps to take - BUY, HOLD, SELL
- Real Money + Doug Kass + 15 more Wall Street Pros
- Intraday commentary & news
- Ultra-actionable trading ideas
- 100+ monthly options trading ideas
- Actionable options commentary & news
- Real-time trading community
- Options TV