The biggest risk in China would be an inflation not a deflation scenario with property prices falling so much?
The worst problem is that their inflation comes back -- they have all of this money trapped inside of China and its sloshing around and it goes back into real estate. I mean they did this once before three or four years ago. They tightened up but then they got scared and then they loosened up again before they cracked the real estate [problem] and they may do it again -- that would be a serious problem.
Some U.S. stock investors are excited about more monetary easing in China. They want to get in on certain stocks that are going to have a lot of growth there. What would you be doing instead?
Rogers: In China, I am doing nothing. I own Chinese shares. Whenever Chinese shares collapse, I buy more, but they are not collapsing yet. The only thing I am doing in China is I own the Renminbi and periodically when I can I buy more Renminbi. You can't just pick up the phone and buy a lot Renminbi but there are ways to buy it and commodities. I mean if you want to play China, commodities are a great way to play because they have to buy cotton, they have to buy lead, they don't have any choice.What's the best commodity, would you say, to play China? Rogers: Any of them, all of them. The Chinese need everything. They have 1.3 billion people and they all want to live like you, and so you know everything: cotton, wheat, oil, everything. Japan Let's stay in Asia, I know that you are bullish on Japan stocks, I have read recently. Are you worried about weaker growth there as export demand from Europe and Thailand tanks? Rogers: First off, you shouldn't believe everything you read. What I said about Japan was that the Japanese stock market today is where it was in 1983 -- that's 28 years ago and so things are very cheap. Now there are reasons that they are cheap but they are so cheap that it seems to me that people should start looking at some Japan shares because Japan has reoriented itself. They are now a way to play Asia and a way to play China. So there are going to be great buys in Japan. It's cheap. They reoriented the economy. I am not giving up on Japan at all. But what would your time frame be? What would the retail investor's time frame be for that? Rogers: Oh, no, I would only own Japan for a year or two or three. Japan's got serious problems. Japan is the largest internal debtor nation in the world and they've got a declining birth rate, a declining population. No, no ten years from now, I couldn't imagine owning Japan. Japan is going to have horrible problems 10, 20 years from now. Commodities You have been calling for a gold correction. Are you still looking for more of a correction in gold? Rogers: Gold is up 11 years in a row now. Very few things in any asset are up 11 years in a row without something happening. So I would suspect that gold, that something is going to happen. Gold has been correcting for over three months now so it's in the process of happening. I would just suggest that's what could happen and what should happen. And if gold goes down, I will be buying more and if it goes down a lot, I'll buy a lot more. I am not selling my gold.
Select the service that is right for you!COMPARE ALL SERVICES
- $2.5+ million portfolio
- Large-cap and dividend focus
- Intraday trade alerts from Cramer
- Weekly roundups
Access the tool that DOMINATES the Russell 2000 and the S&P 500.
- Buy, hold, or sell recommendations for over 4,300 stocks
- Unlimited research reports on your favorite stocks
- A custom stock screener
- Upgrade/downgrade alerts
- Diversified model portfolio of dividend stocks
- Alerts when market news affect the portfolio
- Bi-weekly updates with exact steps to take - BUY, HOLD, SELL
- Real Money + Doug Kass + 15 more Wall Street Pros
- Intraday commentary & news
- Ultra-actionable trading ideas
- 100+ monthly options trading ideas
- Actionable options commentary & news
- Real-time trading community
- Options TV