And the currencies, which ones are you long
: Well, the main currencies I am long are the Yen and the Swiss franc. I do own some euros. I do own some U.S. dollars. What would I buy right now? I would probably buy the Swiss franc if I had to buy something today.
Are you worried about the exchange rate pegged to the euro, that the Swiss National Bank will try to devalue their currency
: The Swiss National Bank has been wrong several times in the past few years. I don't worry too much about central banks. One of the things I learned in my career is that usually if you go against the central banks, you are probably going to be very successful. The Swiss Bank did knock down the Swiss franc a few weeks ago but they have done it a few times and in the end the market has more money than any central bank.
So you should fight the Fed?
: Well, in some ways, yes.
When we spoke last, you said that in 10 years the euro might not exist in the way it does now. What would it take to speed up that 10 year time horizon and have you shorting the euro instead?
: Well to repeat,
I am long the euro at the moment
because I suspect they are going to do something, whether it's phony or not, they are going to do something to make everybody feel better about the euro. Make me feel better about shorting the euro? Well I can't think of anything would make me short. Even if people started pulling out, I mean if the Greeks pull out, the market will think that's good for the euro. I can't think of anything that would make me short the euro at the moment. If I think of something, I will call you or send you an email.
What do you think will make you speed up that time horizon?
:If they all say this is not working out. It's too much trouble, too much pain. The politicians would rail against Brussels and then you would start having everybody disintegrate. At that point there wouldn't be a euro. It would happen sooner but the Germans certainly don't want the euro to disintegrate. Several others don't want the euro to disintegrate so I don't see it happening anytime soon. I do see it happening eventually but not at the moment.
What will change?
: Politicians. There will be new politicians. Things will be worse and worse. The world economy is not going to be great in the next ten years so if you have another lost decade in the West then people are going to get unhappy and upset and they will get new politicians and the politicians will blame everything on Brussels. Brussels can't send tanks ... to keep everybody in line so it will start to disintegrate.
So then for an investor what should they look for, for the health of the euro?
: If the economy is good, everybody will be happy with the euro. When economies are good some place people are happy with their politicians, they are happy with the system and everything else. But when they start going bad, then they start looking for people to blame. They throw out politicians. The politicians respond to the mood of the day. You need to watch the economy in Europe and if it continues to flop along, then the people are going to get unhappy and ... so they are going to throw those politicians out and demand that something changes.
Isn't that already happening?
: Well its happening but not enough to for anybody to pull out or pull the trigger. Yeah, people are getting unhappy the Fins don't want to pay for the Greeks anymore. The Dutch don't want to pay for the Greeks any more. No, it's happening, but it hasn't happened enough yet that you can bring in the firebrands that insist on lots of change.