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Investors Contemplate Next Move: Dave's Daily


Upon further reflection most know Wednesday's central bank action was just a handout to buy time. Both Barclay's and Goldman Sachs didn't think highly of the bullish reaction to yesterday's news. Barclay's Paul Robinson said the market updraft was "exaggerated" and "not easy to make the case that the magnitude of the news quite justifies the magnitude of the global market reaction." He continued: " Market participants seem as fearful of missing a market updraft as they are of getting caught in a downdraft." Goldman sounded a more ominous tone by stating: " Although there is the obvious counter: why act now - is there something lurking around the corner? Those are worries for tomorrow though."

By Thursday, investors are sober knowing that the Fed, along with a few other players, gave interest free handouts and the solution to the eurozone's problems have been postponed for awhile. Much of the optimism for a solution comes from those knowing that a common political union is the answer while at the same time it seems unlikely to occur.

Jobless Claims were disappointing as they surged once again beyond 400K (402K vs 393K expected) but it's interesting how consistently previous data is revised higher as shown below:

 U.S. ISM Mfg Data was more positive (52.7 vs 51.8 expected) which shows more economic growth. However, while U.S. data is improving the rest of the world is contracting as the chart below demonstrates.



And, other recent global economic surveys demonstrate global weakness as shown in the November PMI Survey below:



Stocks vacillated between gains and losses most of Thursday as most financials continued as a drag while other sectors were better like tech. Bonds were flat, the dollar was mostly unchanged and commodities were mixed.


Volume was quite light on Thursday as perhaps traders decided to reflect more on the news and try to digest previous gains. Breadth per the WSJ was mixed to negative. 



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