Kass: Doom and Boom
At the same time the stock market enters this uncertain, murky period of less monetary and fiscal support in a somewhat broken, or at least wounded, state technically. While I don't rely on technical analysis, I recognize many do. While a lot of the "Fast" gang looks at technical levels in determining market direction, resistance and support, if I go technical I prefer looking at patterns rather than levels. And I highlighted my view that a George Lindsay Three Peaks and a Domed House pattern could be indicating an April 2011 top in the markets.By means of background, technical analyst George Lindsay coined his 23-step "Three Peaks and a Domed House" technical pattern and gained celebrity because it pointed to a market peak in late 1968 -- and the largest stock market correction since World War II followed in the years after. ( Here are some historic examples of such a technical setup.) Earlier this year (on these pages and in an appearance on "Fast Money"), I raised the issue that an unusually negative technical formation (in Stages 1 to 7) of George Lindsay's "Three Peaks and a Domed House," might have indicated that an important market top was being made in the spring of 2011. My observation, caught the "Fast Money" team and a number of technically inclined analysts by surprise, as I tend to side with fundamentals. The sharp downturn in stock prices in July (matching Stages 9 to 10) that followed provided an almost perfect fit to Lindsay's observed technical configuration. But now (after possibly moving from Stage 1 to Stage 19), a positive setup and phase (from Stages 20 to 23) might be in order. If the pattern of Lindsay's "Three Peaks and a Domed House" continues, a sharp upside move in the stock indices appears possible. As I promised yesterday, this morning I want to update George Lindsay's "Three Peaks and a Domed House" (superimposed upon S&P cash). The chart below indicates that the technical pattern (though there was recently a slight undercut, just as there was a slight overcut in previous stages) is almost exactly synchronized. If history follows, we are about to move toward the domed house (and much higher stock prices) in the months ahead. Below is a chart of S&P 500 cash year-to-date superimposed by Lindsay's "Three Peaks and A Domed House." Please note the similarity between the S&P and George Lindsay's "Three Peaks and the Domed House" technical configuration throughout this year.
The gang laughed!
-- Doug Kass, "Crazy and Fast Times With 'Fast Money'" (June 24, 2011)
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