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Updated with comments from the Mortgage Bankers Association.
NEW YORK (
TheStreet) -- With the largest U.S. mortgage lenders continuing to pull back, several smaller players have can "double or even triple their market share" over the next couple of years, according to FBR Capital Markets analyst Paul Miller.
According to Miller,
Bank of America (BAC - Get Report) "has created the land of opportunity" for smaller mortgage lenders, since its "dominance in the mortgage market has eroded ever since" its
disastrous purchase of Countrywide In 2008.
With the company still reeling from its mortgage putback mess and regulator order to improve its mortgage loan servicing and foreclosure practices, BAC's share of new mortgage originations in the United States "has declined from ~25% to ~10% as of 3Q11," according to
Inside Mortgage Finance data and FBR's own research.
Other large national mortgage lenders have seen smaller declines, with
JPMorgan's (JPM - Get Report) market share declining to 12% in the third quarter from 14.8% in 2008 and
Citigroup (C - Get Report) seeing its share decline to 5.4% from 7.8% in 2008.
Wells Fargo (WFC - Get Report) saw its mortgage origination market share grow to 27.7% in the third quarter, from 19.4% in 2008.
The Mortgage Bankers Association predicts that total mortgage loan originations in the U.S. will shrink 28% to $935 billion in 2012 because of increasing interest rates and what Miller terms "refi burnout," followed by an increase of 27% in 2013. Miller thinks that with President Obama's expansion of the
Home Affordable Refinance Program , or HARP, for loans held by
Fannie Mae (FNMA) and
Freddie Mac (FMCCO), 2012 mortgage loan volume "could be closer to $1.2 trillion."
Smaller mortgage lenders with national origination platforms that Miller expects to continue taking market share include
U.S. Bancorp (USB - Get Report),
PHH Corp. (PHH),
BB&T (BBT - Get Report), and
Fifth Third Bancorp (FITB - Get Report).
U.S. Bancorp had a 3.8% mortgage origination market share in the third quarter, increasing from 2.5% in 2008. Miller has an "Outperform" or "Buy" rating on the company's shares, with a $32 price target.
PHH Corp. had a 3.5% mortgage market share in the third quarter, increasing from 2.3% in 2008. Miller rates the shares "Outperform," with a $24 price target.
BB&T had a 1.7% mortgage market share in the third quarter, increasing from 1.3% in 2008. FBR analyst Scott Valentin has a neutral rating of "Market Perform" on BBT, with a $22 price target.