Why Central Banks' Action Could Make Matters Worse
The following commentary comes from an independent investor or market observer as part of TheStreet's guest contributor program, which is separate from the company's news coverage.
NEW YORK (TheStreet) -- Over the past 18 months, we have witnessed the emergence of what has become known as the "European Debt Crisis." Capital markets have become increasingly concerned over the sovereign debt of the European peripheral countries and the solvency of the financial institutions that hold much of that debt. You can tell from the 10-year borrowing rates shown in the table below exactly where the concerns reside.
Solvency issues manifest themselves in liquidity issues. Looking at the table, you can see that investors are hesitant to lend to the lower tier without significant compensation for the credit risk they know they are taking. The solvency issue also plays havoc with the ability of the banks to access the short-term capital markets for their everyday liquidity needs. And, in some cases, especially among the banks in the lower tier countries in the table, those liquidity strains are huge.
If you were a Greek citizen, for example, wouldn't you go to your bank and withdraw all of the euros you could and put them in your mattress? That is, in order to protect yourself from the prospect of waking up one morning to find that your account was no longer denominated in euro, but in "new drachma" converted on a 1:1 basis, and the free market value of that "new drachma" was such that it took 4 to purchase 1 euro? So, the silent run currently occurring on Greek banks is not surprising.
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