This account is pending registration confirmation. Please click on the link within the confirmation email previously sent you to complete registration.
Need a new registration confirmation email? Click here
See Cramer's multi-million dollar portfolio for FREE and get his new book Get Rich Carefully! Learn More

Against the Spread: 2011 NFL Picks: Week 11

BOSTON (TheStreet) -- After 10 weeks in this NFL season, you're be smarter to pick against me than with me.

At the halfway point of the season, my record now stands at 16-27 with two ties, good for a miserable winning percentage of 35.5% in the 45 games I've picked so far. If you picked against me, you're sitting with a lovely 60% winning record. I suppose it's a good thing I'm not a portfolio manager, although I still might be doing better with my NFL picks than some hedge fund managers are doing this year.

Speaking of picking stocks and picking NFL games, one of my weekly NFL picks sources made the interesting point of comparing Denver Broncos quarterback Tim Tebow to K-cup maker Green Mountain Coffee Roasters (GMCR), a company targeted by hedge fund manager David Einhorn as a short opportunity. Comparing an embattled speculative name to another embattled speculative name isn't hard to do, even if we're talking about quarterbacks and coffee makers.

"How can you evaluate Tebow one way and others evaluate him another?" asks Paul Bessire, the general manager and creator of the Web site PredictionMachine.com. His Prediction Machine is a quantitative way to break down NFL games as it simulates each contest 50,000 times to come up with a pick against the spread.

"That is a type of product that never existed ever and how efficient it is," Bessire says of the Keurig maker. "But can they consistently produce results and it fades away? I think there are a lot of correlations there. It's identical to the Tebow situation right now. Will it work next year? Will people move on? It's been successful but it doesn't make sense to why it has been successful. You have to take it one game at a time."

Bessire's point in comparing the two is to show how picking NFL games is not about speculation and noise -- it's about focusing on the matchups between two teams and coming to a conclusion that way. That has been difficult for some to deal with, even seasoned professionals in the Vegas sports gambling world.

"It's been a very strange year," says Bryan Leonard, a professional sports handicapper with Pregame.com who is also part of the Tuesday Group, a collection of professional bettors in Las Vegas who get together to handicap the games each week.

"It used to be, if you took the better quarterback or better defense, you were pretty safe to cover," he says. "But in many instances, picking the better quarterback hasn't lived up to expectations." Leonard also brings up Tebow, who managed to lead his team to victory in Week 10 despite completing only two passes all game. "The team has rallied around the idea of playing a different type of ball," he says.

With that, let's get on to the picks for Week 11 of the NFL season. As I'll remind you through the entire season, these are for entertainment purposes only. Once again, I have enlisted the help of PredictionMachine.com's Paul Bessire, who offers analysis of the data his model provides for the games I've picked this week.

I have also collected commentary from Bryan Leonard, whose analysis focuses on the spread movement by Vegas oddsmakers to determine where the public and professional money is moving on each game. These trends prove to be critical for bettors who are on the hunt for inefficiencies and value.

Read on for the first game pick, where the New York Jets travel to play Tebow's Denver Broncos tonight. And as always, I encourage you to leave comments below with your favorite picks against the spread this week. I'm always looking to share ideas. Besides, what's more fun than talking about football betting?

Select the service that is right for you!

COMPARE ALL SERVICES
Action Alerts PLUS
Try it NOW

Jim Cramer and Stephanie Link actively manage a real portfolio and reveal their money management tactics while giving advanced notice before every trade.

Product Features:
  • $2.5+ million portfolio
  • Large-cap and dividend focus
  • Intraday trade alerts from Cramer
  • Weekly roundups
TheStreet Quant Ratings
Try it NOW
Only $49.95/yr

Access the tool that DOMINATES the Russell 2000 and the S&P 500.

Product Features:
  • Buy, hold, or sell recommendations for over 4,300 stocks
  • Unlimited research reports on your favorite stocks
  • A custom stock screener
  • Upgrade/downgrade alerts
Stocks Under $10
Try it NOW

David Peltier, uncovers low dollar stocks with extraordinary upside potential that are flying under Wall Street's radar.

Product Features:
  • Model portfolio
  • Stocks trading below $10
  • Intraday trade alerts
  • Weekly roundups
Dividend Stock Advisor
Try it NOW

Jim Cramer's protege, David Peltier, identifies the best of breed dividend stocks that will pay a reliable AND significant income stream.

Product Features:
  • Diversified model portfolio of dividend stocks
  • Alerts when market news affect the portfolio
  • Bi-weekly updates with exact steps to take - BUY, HOLD, SELL
Real Money Pro
Try it NOW

All of Real Money, plus 15 more of Wall Street's sharpest minds delivering actionable trading ideas, a comprehensive look at the market, and fundamental and technical analysis.

Product Features:
  • Real Money + Doug Kass Plus 15 more Wall Street Pros
  • Intraday commentary & news
  • Ultra-actionable trading ideas
Options Profits
Try it NOW

Our options trading pros provide daily market commentary and over 100 monthly option trading ideas and strategies to help you become a well-seasoned trader.

Product Features:
  • 100+ monthly options trading ideas
  • Actionable options commentary & news
  • Real-time trading community
  • Options TV
To begin commenting right away, you can log in below using your Disqus, Facebook, Twitter, OpenID or Yahoo login credentials. Alternatively, you can post a comment as a "guest" just by entering an email address. Your use of the commenting tool is subject to multiple terms of service/use and privacy policies - see here for more details.
DOW 16,507.49 -6.88 -0.04%
S&P 500 1,876.36 -3.19 -0.17%
NASDAQ 4,130.4270 -31.0310 -0.75%

Brokerage Partners

Rates from Bankrate.com

  • Mortgage
  • Credit Cards
  • Auto
Advertising Partners

Free Newsletters from TheStreet

My Subscriptions:

After the Bell

Before the Bell

Booyah! Newsletter

Midday Bell

TheStreet Top 10 Stories

Winners & Losers

Register for Newsletters
Top Rated Stocks Top Rated Funds Top Rated ETFs