I repeat: Never trust clinical data from India.
Clinical trials conducted in Russia aren't any more credible, so don't trust data from there either.
I should have had this lesson permanently seared into my brain after making a bad call on Medivation (MDVN) and its Alzheimer's drug (clinical data from Russia.) But stupid me, I blew it again by predicting success for Targacept and its anti-depressant TC-5214 (clinical data from India.)Any hope that something positive could be salvaged from the failed TC-5214 phase III study were pretty much dashed this morning when Targacept's CEO, speaking on a conference call, said '5214's effect didn't separate at all from placebo. If '5214 didn't perform any better than a placebo in alleviating symptoms of depression in this phase III study, the chance that the drug performs any better in the remaining three phase III studies is really low. And that also means the spectacular data generated from the phase IIb study of TC-5214, conducted largely in India, were a mirage. It's difficult to reach any other conclusion although Targacept on Tuesday's call insisted that the phase IIb study was conducted with diligence and that its partner AztraZeneca (AZN) did a lot of confirmatory work before agreeing to license TC-5214 for blockbuster terms.
Select the service that is right for you!COMPARE ALL SERVICES
Jim Cramer and Stephanie Link actively manage a real portfolio and reveal their money management tactics while giving advanced notice before every trade.
- $2.5+ million portfolio
- Large-cap and dividend focus
- Intraday trade alerts from Cramer
- Weekly roundups
Access the tool that DOMINATES the Russell 2000 and the S&P 500.
- Buy, hold, or sell recommendations for over 4,300 stocks
- Unlimited research reports on your favorite stocks
- A custom stock screener
- Upgrade/downgrade alerts
Jim Cramer's protege, David Peltier, identifies the best of breed dividend stocks that will pay a reliable AND significant income stream.
- Diversified model portfolio of dividend stocks
- Alerts when market news affect the portfolio
- Bi-weekly updates with exact steps to take - BUY, HOLD, SELL
All of Real Money, plus 15 more of Wall Street's sharpest minds delivering actionable trading ideas, a comprehensive look at the market, and fundamental and technical analysis.
- Real Money + Doug Kass + 15 more Wall Street Pros
- Intraday commentary & news
- Ultra-actionable trading ideas
Our options trading pros provide daily market commentary and over 100 monthly option trading ideas and strategies to help you become a well-seasoned trader.
- 100+ monthly options trading ideas
- Actionable options commentary & news
- Real-time trading community
- Options TV