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Relative Performance of European Countries

The following commentary comes from an independent investor or market observer as part of TheStreet's guest contributor program, which is separate from the company's news coverage.

NEW YORK (The FRED Report) -- Here at the FRED Report, we have been asked many questions about the Greek news. We have been expecting a strong rally since early October, and figured it would have something to do with Greece, but have been recommending (and we STILL) recommend some of the aggressive US ETFs such as OEF, IWM or MDY rather than European Bourses.

Still, since we have seen stronger performance out of Europe, and the markets seem to be suggesting that this Greek solution is a good one, we ask ourselves, "What are the best intermediate technical charts in this area?" We show some weekly charts of European ETFS and will discuss them. For many months, our favorite European market has been EWD, and we note that it is through the resistance at 28.50 - not by much, but it IS through. We compare this to the next strongest countries (EWG - Germany and EWQ - France) and note that they are slightly weaker, but improving.

 

The weaker ETFs in Europe also rallied, but have traded less well over the last few months. These are EWP (Spain) and EWI (Italy). EWP at least has a double bottom, but it has come down more and rallied less, while EWI has broken decisively through the summer 2010 lows. In other words, Italy is weaker than Spain, and both are weaker than the stronger European markets above.

To conclude - our favorite investment is Sweden, with Germany and then France. We realize, the latter are "cheap", but given the chance that more fundamental problems arise in Europe - sometimes "cheap" is for the birds. Relative performance matters more to us here as investors.

Fred Meissner is founder and publisher of The Fred Report. Fred is a CMT and past President of the Market Technicians Association (MTA). He recently left Merrill Lynch's Market Analysis Department and Sector Strategy Department to form The Fred Report.�A detailed bio is here:Fred Meissner.

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