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Euro Deal Triggers Bull Stampede: Dave's Daily


The good news is there's a plan. The bad news is we don't really have the details pinned down as noted HERE. More good news is this stock market rally, should it hold Monday, will mark the largest rally in the last quarter century if records make for good news. Make of it what you will but shorts have been squeezed out of whatever positions they maintained. That might in itself be bad news.

The pressure to make a deal was very high. After all, if the banks didn't (and still haven't actually) accepted a "voluntary" restructuring of Greek debt, the an "involuntary" event would mean default. This would in turn trigger CDS (Credit Default Swaps) activity which counter-parties probably could not pay. Contagion would burn through the financial system creating chaos. This is why the FT article from above is so interesting and worrisome.

Where will the firepower come from to push stock markets higher given the high rate of equity fund redemptions over the past three years? The last I checked equity mutual fund cash balances were only 3.4%). No, juice for bulls will come from private investors with managed funds switching from bonds to stocks. The other source for buying is from the usual suspects--hedge funds, trading desks and HFTs.

Bonds did sell-off as switching to equities and more risk was apparent. On the other hand, commodities rallied as authorities have chosen inflation (no surprise here) over deflation. It's easier to do politically if you don't care about succeeding generations. Gold, silver, base metals, energy and most commodities rose sharply as a result. You want to pay more for stuff don't you? That's the trade-off when pursuing Keynesian policies and big government.

Economic data Thursday was shrugged-off as the two problem areas Jobless Claims (still over 400K) and Pending Home Sales (-4.6% vs unchanged expected) continued to struggle. GDP data was reported at 2.5% growth matching expectations and vs 1.3% previous. Most of the growth there was from consumer spending the bulk of which was in the computer category (iGadgets?).

Meanwhile, Bloomberg's Personal Consumer Consumption vs Confidence clearly displays the disconnect between the two:

Earnings reports, if any mattered vs the news, were good overall led by Exxon Mobil (XOM), Aflac (AFL), Akami Technologies (AKAM) and Aetna (AET) to name a few. The biggest winners on the day had been the worst performing sector previously--financials. There bank stock prices were higher across the board.   

The stock market is at least short-term overbought as the trusty daily McClellan Oscillator ($NYMO) reveals at the end of this posting. Remember this was the case on Monday and then we had Tuesday's massive sell-off, remember??

Volume was high on this epic rally while breadth per the WSJ probably was a 90/10 day.

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