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Cramer: What if It Is 2008?


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NEW YORK ( RealMoney) -- How about this? On a rebounding day, let's play 2008. Let's see if it makes sense, especially in light of the fact that we could rally today when everyone figured we would get another shellacking. If this is 2008, then the following would happen: Many of the large financials would get wiped out. Under a 2008 scenario, the U.S. government has to take a stake in Bank of America (BAC) and dilute the common. The dividends of all banks would be suspended. Wells Fargo (WFC) and Morgan Stanley (MS), trading around $12.63, would trade to $7, and this time Morgan Stanley would get bought by somebody. Maybe a shotgun merger with Goldman Sachs (GS), which now trading around $89, would go to $48. The U.S. government would have to bail out General Motors (GM), again. This time Ford (F) would have to go -- its balance sheet doesn't have enough cash. This time, Buffett doesn't have enough money, because he already bought a lot of stuff.

We would see a dramatic cut in the dividend of General Electric (GE). We would be looking at a collapse in credit that would cause Caterpillar (CAT), Deere (DE), Joy Global (JOYG) and Cummins (CMI) orders to dry up.

If it is 2008, then we will have to see the dividends of Verizon (VZ) and AT&T (T) at risk. We will witness many of our $10 stocks trade to $5 or $4 or $3 or $2 or $1.

If this is 2008, Target (TGT) would have to be cut in half. Macy's (M) will go to $5, where Chapter 11 will be talked about. V.F. Corp (VFC) trades to $37 on a collapse in orders.

If this is 2008, then the Hartford (HIG) would go to $2, and AIG (AIG) would go belly-up all over again.

If this is 2008, then forget about the rails; they'll get cut by almost one-third. How about CSX (CSX) at $6? Union Pacific (UNP) in the $30s? Makes sense to you? Ready for ConocoPhillips (COP) at $34? Chevron (CVX) at $56? You better be.

If this is 2008, then in March 2009, we would reach levels that would place most of the Dow Jones Industrial Average components down 40% from here. Realistic? Make sense to you?

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