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Cramer: What if It Is 2008?

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NEW YORK ( RealMoney) -- How about this? On a rebounding day, let's play 2008. Let's see if it makes sense, especially in light of the fact that we could rally today when everyone figured we would get another shellacking. If this is 2008, then the following would happen: Many of the large financials would get wiped out. Under a 2008 scenario, the U.S. government has to take a stake in Bank of America (BAC - Get Report) and dilute the common. The dividends of all banks would be suspended. Wells Fargo (WFC - Get Report) and Morgan Stanley (MS - Get Report), trading around $12.63, would trade to $7, and this time Morgan Stanley would get bought by somebody. Maybe a shotgun merger with Goldman Sachs (GS - Get Report), which now trading around $89, would go to $48. The U.S. government would have to bail out General Motors (GM - Get Report), again. This time Ford (F - Get Report) would have to go -- its balance sheet doesn't have enough cash. This time, Buffett doesn't have enough money, because he already bought a lot of stuff.

We would see a dramatic cut in the dividend of General Electric (GE - Get Report). We would be looking at a collapse in credit that would cause Caterpillar (CAT - Get Report), Deere (DE - Get Report), Joy Global (JOYG) and Cummins (CMI - Get Report) orders to dry up.

If it is 2008, then we will have to see the dividends of Verizon (VZ - Get Report) and AT&T (T - Get Report) at risk. We will witness many of our $10 stocks trade to $5 or $4 or $3 or $2 or $1.

If this is 2008, Target (TGT - Get Report) would have to be cut in half. Macy's (M - Get Report) will go to $5, where Chapter 11 will be talked about. V.F. Corp (VFC - Get Report) trades to $37 on a collapse in orders.

If this is 2008, then the Hartford (HIG - Get Report) would go to $2, and AIG (AIG - Get Report) would go belly-up all over again.

If this is 2008, then forget about the rails; they'll get cut by almost one-third. How about CSX (CSX) at $6? Union Pacific (UNP - Get Report) in the $30s? Makes sense to you? Ready for ConocoPhillips (COP - Get Report) at $34? Chevron (CVX - Get Report) at $56? You better be.

If this is 2008, then in March 2009, we would reach levels that would place most of the Dow Jones Industrial Average components down 40% from here. Realistic? Make sense to you?

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AIG $59.39 0.27%
BAC $16.74 1.45%
CAT $87.92 0.09%
CMI $140.48 0.04%
COP $63.82 -0.03%


DOW 18,162.99 +121.45 0.67%
S&P 500 2,123.48 +19.28 0.92%
NASDAQ 5,106.5930 +73.8420 1.47%

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