The following commentary comes from an independent investor or market observer as part of TheStreet's guest contributor program, which is separate from the company's news coverage.
NEW YORK (
) -- It seems everyone is looking for a place to put their hard-earned money as uncertainty around the globe continues to rise. Oil, gold and silver, which have been the hot investments for the past few years, took it on the chin over the past month with oil falling 13%, gold dropping 15% and silver seeing a whopping 30% decline. We did actually see sharply lower prices, but last week these oversold commodities had a bounce and recouped some of their losses.
It has been a month since I covered the dollar index in detail and back on Aug. 31, I pointed to a potentially large shift in the U.S. dollar. The charts were pointing to a sizable rally that would likely send stocks and all commodities crashing lower. Since then we have seen just that and the so-called safe havens (gold, silver and oil) have dropped, taking most investment and retirement accounts down with them. I did talk about these so-called safe havens a couple weeks back stating my point of view on them.
My Cole's Note Summary:
"I do not consider any investment vehicle a safe haven if it can drop 15% in value within one to two days. And I would never put a large position of my account especially a retirement account into these investments if I were over 50 years of age."
So where are the big, smart and conservative traders putting their money to work?
Let's dig down and take a quick look at the charts.
The 20-Year Bond -- Daily Chart:
U.S. Dollar -- Daily Chart:
Utility Sector (Dividend-Paying Stocks) -- Daily Chart:
Weekend Trading Conclusion:
In short, I feel both stocks and commodities are oversold but need more time to bottom and we may see a few more days of lower prices in the near future. I see the dollar starting to get toppy on the daily chart and once that rolls over then stocks should bottom along with gold, silver and oil.
Once equity prices start to bounce I anticipate money to flow out of the safe haven (bonds) and into stocks where there are much larger potential gains to be had. All this could play out in a couple days so I am keeping a very close eye on everything.
Last week, we bought the
inverse S&P 500 ETF
anticipating another surge higher in the dollar which would send stocks down in value. So far we are sitting with a gain of 8.2% and the potential for another 4% to 10% if things play out as I expect. If you would like to receive my daily pre-market trading videos so you know exactly what to expect each session along with my ETF trades be sure to
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