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NEW YORK (
Wells Fargo(WFC - Get Report),
JPMorgan Chase(JPM - Get Report),
U. S. Bancorp(USB - Get Report) and
Huntington Bancshares(HBAN - Get Report) will be the relative winners in the upcoming earnings season, Goldman Sachs analysts said in a report on Wednesday.
While bank stocks are likely to remain highly correlated to the macro-economic events, the third quarter results are likely to sport the "highest divergence" in some time, according to the analysts.
Capital markets revenue is likely to be down heavily for the money center banks, dragging overall performance. However, some banks could benefit from higher mortgage banking revenue. Market share gains in commercial loans market and progress in expense cuts are likely to serve as additional differentiators in earnings, according to the analysts.
The analysts predict mortgage banking revenues could rise 30% to 40%, with Wells Fargo,
New York Community Bancorp(NYB), JPMorgan and Huntington Bancshares to be the biggest beneficiaries.
Banks have also more room to make expense cuts as compensation ratios and environmental expenses remain elevated above historical norms. Wells Fargo,
SunTrust(STI - Get Report) and
Bank of America(BAC - Get Report) were best positioned to make expense cuts, the report said.
The analysts said that while banks are trading at historically low multiples on all measures, they expect the market will eventually be willing to pay for banks that can grow pre-provision earnings through "market share-driven loan growth, fee income growth from a cyclically positioned business mix, a reduction in funding costs, or expense initiatives that will flow to the bottom line."
>>To see these stocks in action, visit the
4 Banks Goldman Thinks Will Outperform portfolio on Stockpickr.
--Written by Shanthi Bharatwaj in New York
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