NEW YORK (
) -- The media sector is riddled with risk.
Highly dependent on advertising revenue, the industry has been attempting to figure out how to compete in a world where content is increasingly being accessed online. This has put pressure on most of the stocks and raised fears of Chapter 11 filings.
One way to test if a company poses any threat of filing for bankruptcy is through the Altman Z-Score, a formula developed by New York University professor Edward Altman in 1968. The Altman Z-Score measures several aspects of a company's financial health to forecast the probability of it going bankrupt within two years. Since its inception, the formula has been 72% accurate in predicting corporate bankruptcies two years prior to the filing.
>Bankruptcy Scores: 20 Risky Retailers
On a general basis, companies with a Z-Score higher than 3 are considered safe, while those with a score of 1.8 or lower are considered distressed. Anything in between is a grey area.
While the formula, of course, isn't the only indicator of the financial health -- and is by no means a guaranteed barometer of a company's bankruptcy risk -- it is a metric worth considering for those media companies that fall below the safety zone. A year-over-year decline in Z-Score may also raise a red flag.
While a significant number of media companies examined by
had a Z-Score under 3, the good news is many of the riskiest stocks are showing improvement over last year.
Using this metric,
looked at media companies with a market cap of at least 1 billion and average daily volume of more than 2 million to see which are at the greatest risk of filing for Chapter 11.
Here's a look at media companies with a Z-Score of 1.8 and below for the trailing 12 months, as compiled by I-Metrix.