BOSTON (TheStreet) -- When Goldman Sachs (GS) added homebuilder PulteGroup (PHM) to its conviction buy list in March, the investment bank touted the stock as having return potential of 40%. Instead, investors are down 40% on the investment in less than six months.
Goldman removed Pulte from its conviction buy list Tuesday as the bank recalibrated its housing forecasts due to weak job growth and volatile financial markets. Goldman analysts still rate Pulte buy as the company is in the early stages of a turnaround, but they argue that there is an increased likelihood of a goodwill impairment and limited catalysts.
That view is quite a turnaround from Goldman's view in March, when it called Pulte the "only builder priced right for the long term." Goldman analysts gave Pulte a six-month price target of $10, saying the stock traded at a 40% discount to some peers on key metrics.
Fast-forward to now, and the stock is down to $4.38 as of Friday's close. That's nearly a 40% drop from where the stock closed on March 22, the day before Goldman analysts added the stock to the firm's conviction buy list. Shares are down another 7.3% to $4.06 at the start of trading Tuesday.If the 40% drop in Pulte wasn't enough to dissuade Goldman analysts, they offer up a list of potential catalysts that would make them turn more negative. The reasons range from tighter lending standards to sub-par job growth to an increase in the likelihood of a recession. Forgive me if I'm wrong, but doesn't that sound like the market environment we're in right now? Goldman Sachs economists have already pinned recession odds at 1 in 3, and August saw no net jobs added to the U.S. economy. Goldman's conviction buy call on Pulte cost investors 40%. It remains to be seen what investors will lose with Pulte still rated buy by the bank. -- Written by Robert Holmes in Boston.
>To contact the writer of this article, click here: Robert Holmes. >To follow Robert Holmes on Twitter, go to http://twitter.com/RobTheStreet. >To submit a news tip, send an email to: firstname.lastname@example.org.
Select the service that is right for you!COMPARE ALL SERVICES
Jim Cramer and Stephanie Link actively manage a real portfolio and reveal their money management tactics while giving advanced notice before every trade.
- $2.5+ million portfolio
- Large-cap and dividend focus
- Intraday trade alerts from Cramer
- Weekly roundups
Access the tool that DOMINATES the Russell 2000 and the S&P 500.
- Buy, hold, or sell recommendations for over 4,300 stocks
- Unlimited research reports on your favorite stocks
- A custom stock screener
- Upgrade/downgrade alerts
Jim Cramer's protege, David Peltier, identifies the best of breed dividend stocks that will pay a reliable AND significant income stream.
- Diversified model portfolio of dividend stocks
- Alerts when market news affect the portfolio
- Bi-weekly updates with exact steps to take - BUY, HOLD, SELL
All of Real Money, plus 15 more of Wall Street's sharpest minds delivering actionable trading ideas, a comprehensive look at the market, and fundamental and technical analysis.
- Real Money + Doug Kass Plus 15 more Wall Street Pros
- Intraday commentary & news
- Ultra-actionable trading ideas
Our options trading pros provide daily market commentary and over 100 monthly option trading ideas and strategies to help you become a well-seasoned trader.
- 100+ monthly options trading ideas
- Actionable options commentary & news
- Real-time trading community
- Options TV