Timing America's Comeback
Yale's Robert Schiller adds additional light on the subject: "The fundamental problem that much of the world faces today is that investors are overreacting to debt-to-GDP ratios, fearful of some magic threshold, and demanding fiscal austerity programs too soon. The lesson is simple. We should worry less about debt ratios and thresholds and more about our inability to see these indicators for the artificial, and often irrelevant, constructs that they are."
As hedge funds financially exploit each and every perceived crisis, somehow the United States always seems to bounce back. The recovery off the August 2011 lows will be no different. As long as government debt remains the bearish variable of choice, we will be forced to deal with volatile swings, but don't discount the ability of the market to rally in a major way as soon as political short-term policy is changed to appease short-sighted investors.
The foundation of America is strong. We have 91% employment and it looks like we could pick up a few more percentage points with Obama's plan that will be announced after Labor Day. When was the last time you heard anyone refer to our employment situation as 91% employed? Is the glass half full or half empty?
Contrary to popular opinion, I still believe that we are in the midst of the greatest technological revolution in the history of mankind and once this market heals itself from the contagious spread of fear, the next cycle of the bull market should surpass the artificial run of the dot-com bubble. We're not as far away from that kind of generational rally as you might think.
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