NEW YORK (
) -- Bank stocks are pricing in a double-dip recession, but industry analysts contend that the impact of a downturn this time around might not be as severe as first thought.
The consensus is that banks, especially the big four-
Bank of America
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(JPM - Get Report)
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- have much stronger capital and liquidity levels, indicating that they have a much stronger capacity to absorb losses.
>>Citigroup Selloff Is Overdone
Barclays Capital Credit Research analyst Jonathan Glionna notes that the total tangible common equity of the four largest U.S. banks has grown from $248 billion at the second quarter of 2007 to $471billion at the end of the most recent quarter. "If a downside scenario were to materialize, we would expect the four banks' combined quarterly preprovision earnings of more than $30 billion to offset a substantial portion of loan losses or legal charges as they occur; however, if earnings streams diminish, the major banks would still have this large pool of capital to absorb losses," he said in a note.
What's more, while another recession will undoubtedly stall loan growth, the credit losses might not be as exaggerated this time around.
"At this point, we do not see the current environment as indicative of meaningfully higher-than-expected credit costs," Goldman Sachs analysts wrote in a report.
They cite three reasons.
- First, the majority of levered loans underwritten prior to this credit cycle have already been charged off.
- Second, loans that have been more carefully underwritten in the 2008-2010 period are now a larger part of the book.
- Finally while the level of unemployment remains high, there is unlikely to be a rapid flow into unemployment in the manner seen in 2008-09 when the unemployment rate doubled from 5% to 10%.
Raymond James analyst Anthony Polini makes a similar argument, suggesting that even if a recession were to occur, it is unlikely to make a big dent in bank profitability given that it would follow a period of anemic growth. "If we do have a recession next year, it is not going to look much different from this year's recovery," Polini told
. "The U.S. economy will be falling off a cliff that is only a foot high, not a mile high like it was before. There have been no excesses to speak of."