The more important calculation and question is what happens to Wall Street's estimation for Provenge peak sales, since this is the figure upon which investors value Dendreon.
The company insists the commercial opportunity for Provenge remains the same while acknowledging that it will take longer to get there. Investors and analysts are going to be more skeptical, which means the current peak sales consensus of $1.5 billion to $2 billion will be reduced -- perhaps dramatically.
Citibank biotech analyst Lucy Lu, in a July research note that correctly cautioned clients about Dendreon, laid out a scenario in which peak sales of Provenge could be just $500 million to $750 million.
"If peak sales were to fall in the range of $500-750M, we believe Dendreon could trade down to
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