A U.S. default or credit downgrade may cause oil prices to rally or sink depending on which facet and drivers of the oil markets the analyst focuses on more. But Citi Futures Perspective energy analyst Tim Evans takes a look at another oil market driver possibility: deep spending cuts.
He says that even if there weren't a U.S. downgrade or default -- even if U.S. lawmakers on all sides came to an agreement on deep spending cuts that would bring down overall debt in the long-term -- oil prices could drop.
"I'm more concerned that U.S. [oil] demand will fall short of expectations. Cutting spending -- whether its government, business, or consumers doing the cutting -- is a reduction in aggregate demand," said Evans. "Spending cuts would be a drag on the economy for years to come" with a serious risk that businesses won't pick up the spending slack from government cuts.
The United Kingdom, he said, is a good example of what he's worried about. "Britain adopted austerity measures a year ago and they just posted a 0.2% GDP [gross domestic product] gain for Q2 [second quarter]. Too much budget-balancing too soon could create a repeat of the 1937 U.S. recession he said.
Kinker of Mirus Futures meanwhile believes that the Federal Reserve is unlikely to implement another round of quantitative easing, given the widespread questions about the effectiveness of the previous rounds of stimulus programs, and will likely use a tool "that they never used before" to lift the economy.
As the Aug. 2 deadline for raising the U.S. debt ceiling approaches, "the pressure [on oil prices] will continue to ratchet up," said Smith of Summit Energy, noting that he expects to see a selloff in crude under the influence of a general flight from risk if a compromise for raising the debt ceiling by Aug. 2 isn't reached -- though the move lower would likely be tempered by weakness in the dollar. Smith believes the next test to the downside would be $94 for West Texas Intermediate light sweet crude oil and around $110 for Brent crude oil.
Evans of Citi Futures Perspective said even without a default, spending cuts or economic slowing, the Brent market is overvalued by about $20 to $25 a barrel, so Brent could fall by an amount similar to its drop in 2008 to $80 to $85 a barrel level when a bearish economic scenario is added in.
Oil Price Information Service's chief oil analyst Tom Kloza said if the debt ceiling wasn't an issue, he'd expect that oil prices would be headed for more modest levels in the August to September period, then begin a climb towards "the highest prices of our lifetime" as more investment and speculative money flows into oil between the fourth quarter of 2011 and first quarter of 2012 -- based a pattern that becomes more pronounced year after year -- and the Arab revolutions and emerging market demand lift prices.
Oil and gas stocks settled lower Wednesday on U.S. debt ceiling concerns and
mixed earnings reception.
(CHK - Get Report)
fell 2.1% to close at $33.40,
(RRC - Get Report)
inched 0.5% lower to $64.30,
(EOG - Get Report)
tumbled 2.4% to $104.07,
lost 2.8% to $25.69,
Carrizo Oil & Gas
(CRZO - Get Report)
surrendered 3.5% to $38.71,
tumbled 3.3% to $101.40 and
Double Eagle Petroleum
was lower by 0.7% to $10.70.
-- Written by Andrea Tse in New York.
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