Department Stores Poised to Get Back-to-School Pop

NEW YORK (TheStreet) -- Department stores could be the big winners during the back-to-school shopping season.

According to a survey conducted by the National Retail Federation, 57% of back-to-school shoppers will head to department stores, up from 53.9% in 2010, and the most in the survey's eight-year history.

The surge in traffic is being attributed to compelling private-label brands, promotions and innovative social media campaigns.

Macy's(M), it seems, may see the biggest benefit from this revival in the department store space.

For the second time in two months, Macy's raised its second-quarter and full-year outlook, following strong June same-store sales. The company is now calling for comparable-sales growth of 6% for the current quarter and 4.8% for the year. Management originally predicted a comparable-sales increase of 4% in the current quarter and 4.3% in 2011; it later raised this guidance to up 5% and 4.5%, respectively.

In June, Macy's posted a 6.7% jump in same-store sales, better than the 4.8% Wall Street estimated.

Kohl's(KSS) and J.C. Penney(JCP), which have lagged Macy's, also stand to benefit from back-to-school, boasting an extensive portfolio of private-label merchandise.

Kohl's reported a 7.5% surge in June same-store sales, more than twice the increase analysts were expecting, while J.C. Penney saw sales up 2% for the month, slightly shy of consensus estimates of a gain of 2.3%.

But overall, back-to-school is expected to be lackluster, with the NRF forecasting sales to be flat compared with last year's $22.8 billion.

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"Families aren't opposed to spending on what they need, but parents want their children to take a good look around at what they already have before deciding what to buy for back-to-school this year," said NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay, in a statement. "Retailers understand consumers are extremely focused on value and are taking this opportunity to offer substantial savings on merchandise."