A Midyear Technical Checkup for Stocks
But that is still a very long-term look. Let's move in closer and see where we are within that broad pattern. On the chart below, we are seeing the last year of Dow Industrials trading, depicted on an Equivolume basis.
Here we are seeing the very regular cyclicality. It looks as though the Dow is making a low just about every three months. That suggests the next cycle low will show up in July. Then we could start a new cycle, again giving us a high in six weeks or so and a low in three months, plus or minus.
The other feature of this chart is the apparent breaking of the uptrend line going back to August of last year. That tells us of a major change and hints that we should not be looking for a new high on the next up cycle. In fact, we are likely making a big head and shoulders and are now at the neckline. That would suggest we are going to be, by the end of the year, lower than we are now, but with a tradable up-cycle in between.
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