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5 Banks At Risk of a Commercial Real Estate Double Dip

3. Synovus Financial

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Shares of Georgia-based Synovus (SNV - Get Report) are down 20% year to date.

Synovus had a commercial real estate exposure of $11.5 billion as of the March 31, 2011, about 330% of its core capital. Non-performing CRE loans accounted for about 20% of its core capital.

Synovus is exposed to the SouthEast where real estate has taken the worst hit. Georgia and Florida, accounted for about approximately 53% and 13% of the total loan portfolio by geographic concentration.

JPMorgan analysts said in a note in May that Synovus is "likely to remain challenged on the growth front given a remixing of the loan portfolio away from C&D (construction and development) loans and more into C&I(commercial and industrial). In the first quarter, average loans declined at a 15% annualized pace. With the market seemingly very focused on top-line organic growth potential, we believe it's unlikely the market will take a more favorable view of SNV's growth prospects over the near term," the analysts wrote.

Wunderlich Securities recently downgraded the stock to a hold, citing capital constraints." We believe that Synovus' earnings power beyond this credit cycle will be greatly constrained by the potential need to raise significant amounts of common equity in order to exit the TARP program," the analyst wrote in a note.

Out of the 29 analysts covering the stock, four have a buy rating, 21 a hold rating and four have a sell call on the stock.
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