This Day On The Street
Continue to site
ADVERTISEMENT
This account is pending registration confirmation. Please click on the link within the confirmation email previously sent you to complete registration.
Need a new registration confirmation email? Click here

Safe Energy Investments for 2011: Analysts


NEW YORK ( TheStreet) -- Oil prices may be falling, but the industry is gearing up for longer-term growth, offering investors a potentially prime opportunity to profit from the energy sector.

A study of capital budget expectations of more than 400 oil and gas companies published by the Barclays Capital commodities research team showed that global exploration and production spending in the industry will surpass a half a trillion dollars in 2011. Spending should rise 16% to $529 billion this year compared with $458 billion last year. This is a positive sign for oil prices.

The report attributes the robust year-over-year increase to large spending increases in both North America, up 16.2%, and outside North America, up 15.5%. In December, Barclays forecast a smaller increase of 11% globally, 7% in North America and 12% outside North America.

The bigger budgets alongside higher oil prices and the expectation of rising oil prices are consistent with historical trends, the authors of the report said. "The correlation between exploration and production spending and inflation-adjusted oil prices is significant and we expect a high oil price environment to persist over the next several years driven by ... continued difficulty finding and developing large reserves, increased demand especially in emerging markets and tight spare capacity."

"This is setting the stage for further growth in spending in 2012 and beyond, and 2011 is likely to mark the first year of the restarting of multi-year, double-digit growth in global exploration and production spending."

Oil and gas companies collectively are basing their 2011 capital spending budgets on an average price of $87 a barrel of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil. In early December, their average oil price expectation was $77 a barrel. The Barclays commodities team meanwhile predicts that WTI oil prices will average $106 a barrel for the year, $137 for 2015 and $185 for 2020. Its Brent forecast is $112 for the year, $135 for 2015 and $184 for 2020. Roughly 23% of the companies Barclays spoke with suggest that if oil prices were to average $90 to $100 a barrel this year, they would increase spending, while only 3% said they would decrease spending. About 74% of the respondents said they would not adjust their spending plans for 2011. The vast majority of those surveyed say they expect to increase spending in 2012, with nearly half forecasting expenditure increases of 10% or more, the Barclays analysts said.

Kate Warne, U.S. investment strategist with Edward Jones, recommends a 12% portfolio weighting in energy stocks -- neither underweight or overweight, which is roughly in line with the S&P 500 index's energy sector weighting. Warne likes the diversification the energy sector offers. "It trades with oil and natural gas prices rather than the rest of the market," she explains.

Within the energy sector, investment advisers are generally recommending oil-weighted stocks over gas-weighted stocks, given that they have a bullish outlook for oil and bearish outlook for North American natural gas. Typically, the U.S.-traded, natural gas pure plays are overwhelmingly exposed to the U.S., rather than international natural gas markets, which receive a much more bullish outlook from analysts. "Right now, we definitely have a weighting towards the oil. We like the fundamentals better," says Standard & Poor's analyst Michael Kay. Plus, "You never know what's going to happen politically out there."

That said, a tolerance for volatility may be required of oil investors, whether in the commodity itself or the equities. Oil prices, of course, have a tendency to be volatile -- in 2008, oil prices hit a peak of $147 a barrel before retreating to the mid-$30 range that year; then it popped back up over $100 this year. "There is going to be volatility in this industry. There's no way around it," says Argus Research Group's senior energy analyst Philip Weiss. "It's a cyclical industry."

1 of 7

Check Out Our Best Services for Investors

Action Alerts PLUS

Portfolio Manager Jim Cramer and Director of Research Jack Mohr reveal their investment tactics while giving advanced notice before every trade.

Product Features:
  • $2.5+ million portfolio
  • Large-cap and dividend focus
  • Intraday trade alerts from Cramer
Quant Ratings

Access the tool that DOMINATES the Russell 2000 and the S&P 500.

Product Features:
  • Buy, hold, or sell recommendations for over 4,300 stocks
  • Unlimited research reports on your favorite stocks
  • A custom stock screener
Stocks Under $10

David Peltier uncovers low dollar stocks with serious upside potential that are flying under Wall Street's radar.

Product Features:
  • Model portfolio
  • Stocks trading below $10
  • Intraday trade alerts
14-Days Free
Only $9.95
14-Days Free
Dividend Stock Advisor

David Peltier identifies the best of breed dividend stocks that will pay a reliable AND significant income stream.

Product Features:
  • Diversified model portfolio of dividend stocks
  • Updates with exact steps to take - BUY, HOLD, SELL
Trifecta Stocks

Every recommendation goes through 3 layers of intense scrutiny—quantitative, fundamental and technical analysis—to maximize profit potential and minimize risk.

Product Features:
  • Model Portfolio
  • Intra Day Trade alerts
  • Access to Quant Ratings
Options Profits

Our options trading pros provide over 100 monthly option trading ideas and strategies to help you become a well-seasoned trader.

Product Features:
  • Actionable options commentary and news
  • Real-time trading community
SYM TRADE IT LAST %CHG
HAL $45.62 0.00%
CVX $103.11 0.00%
COP $63.82 0.00%
NE $17.24 0.00%
XOM $85.11 0.00%

Markets

DOW 18,162.99 +121.45 0.67%
S&P 500 2,123.48 +19.28 0.92%
NASDAQ 5,106.5930 +73.8420 1.47%

Partners Compare Online Brokers

Free Reports

Top Rated Stocks Top Rated Funds Top Rated ETFs