Micron: A Trade to the Long Side

NEW YORK (TheStreet) -- This week we're seeing earnings from some technology stocks -- Adobe (ADBE) and Jabil (JBL) reported Tuesday; Micron (MU) and Oracle (ORCL) report Thursday. With the official earnings season just a couple weeks away, these early/late reports can offer some insight into what to expect. Adobe looks fine with guidance at the high end of the range. The stock popped after-hours Tuesday but had sold off for a month into the report. Jabil looks like a carbon copy on the Adobe's behavior after reporting Tuesday as well.

I wrote about Oracle on RealMoney earlier this week and it's a name I like and own. I do not expect Oracle to disappoint and its stock has been working higher in anticipation despite the market drubbing administered over the past month.

Micron (MU), meanwhile, is an interesting case and, like the others, has sold straight down for the past six weeks. Here is the daily chart.

The stock has just completed an AB=CD pattern to the downside and appears ready to bounce. If I pull the chart back a bit to a weekly view, what you see is that not only has the AB=CD pattern completed but it has completed as part of hitting a decent support zone. The final support zone is located just beneath and is the last support zone visible on this time frame.

Although as a matter of principal I almost never trade in front of earnings, this looks like a pretty good setup to trade to the long side. Risk is minimal and the resistance looks to be all the way back up around $9.50 to $10.

It's the monthly chart that tells us this is only a trade though. Look at how volume is expanding as price goes lower. Although Micron likely holds and gives a good bounce, I do expect it to revisit these lows again and probably sooner rather than later.

The good news is that there was volume in early 2011 when the highs of 2010 were tested. The bad news is that despite that price couldn't hold and now volume is expanding as prices decline. Furthermore, there's not much volume on that swing point low (the low in 2010) and if it is broken, then I wouldn't want to touch this stock.

Until next time, just keep trading the charts!

At the time of publication, Little was long Oracle, though positions can change at any time.

L.A. Little, author, professional trader and money manager, writes daily on his own educational Web site for traders and investors. He has been featured in numerous publications and is the author of Trade Like the Little Guy. His new book, Trend Qualification and Trading, details the principles and techniques he writes about on TheStreet. Little�s background includes degrees in philosophy, computer science, computer information systems and telecommunications. With a trading philosophy centered on capital protection first and the accumulation of consistent gains over time, Little espouses a simple technical approach to trading the markets that is a throwback to the days of past. With a focus on swing points and trend qualification, he provides a breath of fresh air to an otherwise crowded room of derivative indicators with an emphasis on technical minutiae.