Global Economy Haunts Developed Nations

By Albert Bozzo, Senior Features Editor

NEW YORK (CNBC) -- A funny thing happened on the road to globalization.

It became a two-way street, not a one-way trade superhighway for the developed economies.

The change in traffic -- which loosely corresponds with China's entry into the World Trade Organization in November 2001 -- has been gradual and subtle during good economic times, but has become stunningly obvious since the arrival of the financial crisis in 2008.

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"What we have to to realize is that the dynamic of the whole global economy has changed very dramatically," says Jorge Heine, a Chilean politician, diplomat, policy expert and co-author of the book "The Dark Side of Globalization". "Growth and dynamism is now from the emerging economies. They are the new players."

Forget about BRIC. Try BRIC-A-BRAC. Brazil, Russia, India, China, then fill in the names of any number of countries in the Latin America and Asia-Pacific regions whose initials fit the bill.

"Once countries reach a certain level of development, [economic] growth rates are limited 2-3%," says Heine. "And recoveries are muted."

A quick survey of a just released International Monetary Fund's latest "World Economic Outlook" survey appears to support that.

Between 2010 and 2012, the U.S. economy -- real or forecast -- will average 2.7% growth. During the last decade, GDP averaged 1.7%. It never once topped 4% --which it did five times during the 1990s, when globalization was clearly a mighty tailwind for developed economies.

Growth rates for other developed economies during from 2010-2012 are even more worrisome -- eurozone 1.8%, Japan 2%, U.K. 1.7%. Even commodities-rich Canada's GDP average will only be around 2.9%.

Compare that to Brazil (5.2), Russia (4.4), India (8.8) and China (9.8). Oh yes, and Sub-Saharan Africa, which includes South Africa (5.5).

It's The Global Economy, Stupid

"Dark Side", co-authored with Ramesh Thakur, a former assistant secretary-general of the UN, is not simply about economics. It also dfocuses on a variety of major ills -- drugs, terrorism, human trafficking, pandemics.

Nor are Heine's views deeply mainstream. They may, however, partly explain the baffling and disappointingly subpar recovery in the U.S. (and Europe), and present a counterpoint to the more palatable and popular current buzz phrase known as "two-speed recovery" -- which is likely to pop up during discussions about the global economy at this year's New York Forum in New York City, June 20-21.

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