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Stock Market Likely to Bounce: Opinion

Federal government revenues have increased 10.7% in the last year, while spending has increased by only 4.4% even without any tax increases.

The 12-month rolling total of the federal budget deficit has declined from $1.36 trillion to $1.29 trillion over the past year. This is what usually happens in an improving business cycle.

From this perspective, the brash statements being made in the media suggesting the U.S. is worse off than Greece are irresponsible and conceal a hidden agenda.

There is a very real chance that both the economy and the stock market will reach lows in June and have plenty of ammunition to bounce. Forecasting the long-term destruction of the U.S. seems a little premature.

4. We remain convinced that Apple (AAPL), Sina (SINA), Netflix (NFLX) and Baidu (BIDU) will lead the recovery off the summer lows.

Now is the time for the Economic Weather Station to do its job and signal to us the opportune time to reinvest our 65% allocation of cash. These next purchases are very important. Get the timing right, and you could find yourself with some wealth-building positions that more than make up for the market's recent selloff.

At the time of publication, Schwarz held bullish positions in Apple, Sina and Netflix.

This commentary comes from an independent investor or market observer as part of TheStreet guest contributor program. The views expressed are those of the author and do not necessarily represent the views of TheStreet or its management.

Jason Schwarz is an option strategist for Lone Peak Asset Management in Westlake Village, Calif. He is also the founder of the popular investment newsletter available at www.economictiming.com. Over the past few years, Schwarz has gained acclaim for his market calls on the price of oil, Bank of America, Apple, E*Trade, and his precision investing in S&P 500 option LEAPS. His book, The Alpha Hunter, is set to be released by McGraw Hill in December 2009.

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