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Reality Hits Markets Hard: Dave's Daily



Perhaps Bernanke's grand academic research didn't factor in modern conditions. Low interest rates during a recession were certainly appropriate but everything else (stimulus, QE and even bailouts) you could've left out from my view. Yes it would've been brutal not bailing out banks here and abroad; but, the harsh pain may have been over quickly. And, if proper accommodative public policies were in place (tax rates, "fair" trade, energy independence and etc.) the economic comeback may have been quick, given the unleashed animal spirits. It's sort of like the dentist telling you he wants to remove your four impacted wisdom teeth one tooth at a time per year. No thanks. Let's get it over with.

Of course the Fed will continue its POMO activities with $60B in purchases over the next few weeks as outlined here. Watch out for the double $10B injection on Monday June 20 th, which is curiously just after quadwitching.

It's easy to second guess. But now what? Just a long hot summer ahead is all I see. This unemployment map from the WSJ today tells the tale in my opinion.

Everything was sold on Friday (stocks, commodities, currencies and etc) leaving only bonds as the safe haven of choice. Question: Why would you think the dollar is safe? I guess it's just repatriation.

So Thursday we got our rather weak oversold rally as expected but now the big negative economic picture is taking hold. There isn't much to add except to say we're again short-term oversold.

Volume expanded rapidly Friday reaching one of the highest readings in 2011 as this repeats previous higher volume (distribution) days. Breadth per the WSJ was quite negative approaching a 10/90 day.

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