This Day On The Street
Continue to site right-arrow
This account is pending registration confirmation. Please click on the link within the confirmation email previously sent you to complete registration.
Need a new registration confirmation email? Click here
TheStreet Open House

Understanding Sector Rotation: Technical Analysis Primer

Even though these relationships are a good simplification of the investment cycle, they're not infallible. Just because they hold true now doesn't mean they'll hold true in perpetuity -- as a result, it's important to stay on top of market relationships if you're taking an active approach to asset rotation. As useful as it may be to know how the investment cycle operates, the most crucial piece of the puzzle is still missing: How do you know when to rotate into or out of a particular sector or asset class?

Trading Signals for Your Asset Rotation Strategy

Traditionally, relative strength has been one of the most popular ways of determining which sectors are worth watching. Basically, relative strength is calculated by taking the ratio of one security's price over another's. While the resulting number is fairly meaningless, its change over time is very significant -- and uptrending charts of this metric mean outperformance is occurring in the numerator security. By using a moving average crossover signal to determine when that uptrend is broken, it's possible to get solid, mechanical buy and sell signals.

The fact that (traditional) relative strength can only compare two securities at a time means that a number of charts have to be analyzed to find the "winning" asset class -- but the objective buy and sell signals are a huge benefit to anxious traders.

A more anecdotal method involves taking a look at the performance of different sectors and asset classes over a given period to determine where in the investment cycle we are. Based on the intermarket relationships we talked about earlier, a bond rally turning south coupled with increased buying in stocks could mean that equities are about to start a more sizable run. Within stocks, comparing sectors that are historical leaders or laggards can point investors in the right direction as to which sector to be heavy on and which to avoid. When a leading industry such as transportation starts to see an uptick, it may be a good indicator that it's time to take a position in later-stage industries like consumer staples.

(Note: Martin Pring's book Technical Analysis Explained provides an excellent table of industries grouped by their leading or lagging effects during cycles.)

2 of 3

Check Out Our Best Services for Investors

Action Alerts PLUS

Portfolio Manager Jim Cramer and Director of Research Jack Mohr reveal their investment tactics while giving advanced notice before every trade.

Product Features:
  • $2.5+ million portfolio
  • Large-cap and dividend focus
  • Intraday trade alerts from Cramer
Quant Ratings

Access the tool that DOMINATES the Russell 2000 and the S&P 500.

Product Features:
  • Buy, hold, or sell recommendations for over 4,300 stocks
  • Unlimited research reports on your favorite stocks
  • A custom stock screener
Stocks Under $10

David Peltier uncovers low dollar stocks with serious upside potential that are flying under Wall Street's radar.

Product Features:
  • Model portfolio
  • Stocks trading below $10
  • Intraday trade alerts
14-Days Free
Try it NOW
Only $9.95
Try it NOW
14-Days Free
Try it NOW

Check Out Our Best Services for Investors

Dividend Stock Advisor

David Peltier identifies the best of breed dividend stocks that will pay a reliable AND significant income stream.

Product Features:
  • Diversified model portfolio of dividend stocks
  • Updates with exact steps to take - BUY, HOLD, SELL
Trifecta Stocks

Every recommendation goes through 3 layers of intense scrutiny—quantitative, fundamental and technical analysis—to maximize profit potential and minimize risk.

Product Features:
  • Model Portfolio
  • Intra Day Trade alerts
  • Access to Quant Ratings
Options Profits

Our options trading pros provide over 100 monthly option trading ideas and strategies to help you become a well-seasoned trader.

Product Features:
  • Actionable options commentary and news
  • Real-time trading community
Try it NOW
Try it NOW
Try it NOW
To begin commenting right away, you can log in below using your Disqus, Facebook, Twitter, OpenID or Yahoo login credentials. Alternatively, you can post a comment as a "guest" just by entering an email address. Your use of the commenting tool is subject to multiple terms of service/use and privacy policies - see here for more details.
Submit an article to us!
AAPL $126.37 2.53%
FB $83.20 -0.13%
GOOG $552.03 0.67%
TSLA $190.57 3.01%
YHOO $44.95 -0.33%


DOW 17,976.31 +263.65 1.49%
S&P 500 2,086.24 +25.22 1.22%
NASDAQ 4,947.4410 +56.2220 1.15%

Partners Compare Online Brokers

Free Reports

Free Newsletters from TheStreet

My Subscriptions:

After the Bell

Before the Bell

Booyah! Newsletter

Midday Bell

TheStreet Top 10 Stories

Winners & Losers

Register for Newsletters
Top Rated Stocks Top Rated Funds Top Rated ETFs