Is it Fiscally Responsible to End QE2?: Opinion
The following commentary comes from an independent investor or market observer as part of TheStreet's guest contributor program, which is separate from the company's news coverage.
By Noble DraKoln, CTA, Liverpool Capital Management
NEW YORK (TheStreet) -- Forget May 21, 2011, the loudly prophesized end of the world. Ignore the centuries-old Mayan doomsday prediction of Dec. 21, 2011. Instead, look nearer and dearer to home. June 30, 2011 -- a day that will go down in history as the day the Federal Reserve Board stopped printing money.
On June 30, 2011 one of the most successful stock manipulation schemes, next to Madoff, will end -- no more Quantitative Easing: Part 2. This sophisticated chicanery is the culmination of three years of consistent indoctrination by the Federal Reserve. The Federal Reserve has made it clear, only they can save the United States from itself. Unfortunately, as with many self-appointed saviors and prophets, present and future, many outrageous claims were made. They would save homes, stimulate the economy, and bring the United States back to glory in one fell swoop.Unfortunately, the first one fell swoop didn't work. In Nov. 2008, the Federal Reserve insisted that it would be our savior by absorbing $500 billion dollars worth of mortgage-backed securities and $100 billion in Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac debt. This didn't work. In March 2009, once the stock market hit rock bottom, the Federal Reserve attempted a second "one fell swoop" by injecting another $850 billion into the economy by purchasing more mortgage-backed securities, and Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac debt -- but with one small twist: they would add a $300 billion long-term Treasury notes and bonds to their shopping spree. Yet this still didn't work, so in Aug. 2010, it was set in stone by Ben Bernanke that another round of purchasing would save the day, Quantitative Easing Part 2 (QE2). The plan was simple, ZIRP the lending, QE2 the economy to stimulate buying, and the VIX will be just fine. In layman's language; make sure the interest rate stays at zero (z.ero i.nterest r.ate p.olicy), use the Federal Reserve money to purchase $75 billion to $80 billion dollars a month to buy government bonds, from third parties, this would "stop the slowing of inflation"(QE2), and reduce the level of the volatility (v.olatility i.nde x.) found in the stock market. This was all done to solve a problem that didn't exist yet, but was assumed to be on the horizon. Of course, this was all for our own good.
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