This Day On The Street
Continue to site
ADVERTISEMENT
This account is pending registration confirmation. Please click on the link within the confirmation email previously sent you to complete registration.
Need a new registration confirmation email? Click here

Market Preview: May Jobs Report, Wal-Mart, Groupon

NEW YORK ( TheStreet) -- Friday's all-important May jobs report is coming close to being a referendum on the recovery.

Since the much weaker than expected ADP employment report on Wednesday, economists and analysts have scrambled to bring down expectations for the Bureau of Labor Statistics' release, and the feeling is the market has now largely priced in a weak showing.

That's all well and good from a trading standpoint, and Friday may very well produce a bounce for equities, even if nonfarm payrolls disappoints. The trick there will be not falling too far short of the mark. But looking further out, the Dow Jones Industrial Average is set up for its fifth straight weekly decline (It will take a gain of nearly 200 points on Friday to avoid it), and those who've enjoyed the rally since last summer have to getting nervous about what happens when QE2 wraps up at the end of this month, as the rally in bonds seems to attest.

The consensus for the May nonfarm payrolls number, due at 8:30 a.m. ET, is for an increase of 169,000 jobs, but Briefing.com sees a less healthy 140,000 number. The unemployment rate is seen sitting at 9.1%. Expect more parsing of the numbers inside the numbers in the commentary that follows the report as the reads on average workweek and hourly earnings get more face time than usual in the interests of spin.

A much worse than anticipated report (think below 100K) and the big picture starts to look pretty bleak amid the ongoing squabbling about the debt ceiling, and Moody's warning on Thursday about the vulnerability of the federal government's triple-A credit rating. (Moody's also expressed trepidation about the big banks on Thursday, saying it's reviewing the ratings of Bank of America (BAC), Citigroup (C - Get Report), and Wells Fargo (WFC - Get Report) to account for doubts about future government support. All three stocks shrugged off the warning and rose in Thursday's regular session).

Interestingly, the American Association of Individual Investors' survey for the week ended on Wednesday has been released and it shows a marked decline in bearishness, although it's debatable how many respondents took into account the bruising selling on Wednesday.

The survey of the organization's roughly 150,000 members found 33.4% identifying themselves as bearish about stocks for the next six months, down eight percentage points from last week, but still elevated above a long-term average of 30%. The bullish box was checked by 30.2% of respondents, up 4.6 percentage points but still well below a long-term average of 39%. The neutral camp got more crowded as well, coming in at 36.4%, up 3.4 percentage points, and above a long-term average of 31%.
1 of 2

Check Out Our Best Services for Investors

Action Alerts PLUS

Portfolio Manager Jim Cramer and Director of Research Jack Mohr reveal their investment tactics while giving advanced notice before every trade.

Product Features:
  • $2.5+ million portfolio
  • Large-cap and dividend focus
  • Intraday trade alerts from Cramer
Quant Ratings

Access the tool that DOMINATES the Russell 2000 and the S&P 500.

Product Features:
  • Buy, hold, or sell recommendations for over 4,300 stocks
  • Unlimited research reports on your favorite stocks
  • A custom stock screener
Stocks Under $10

David Peltier uncovers low dollar stocks with serious upside potential that are flying under Wall Street's radar.

Product Features:
  • Model portfolio
  • Stocks trading below $10
  • Intraday trade alerts
14-Days Free
Only $9.95
14-Days Free
Dividend Stock Advisor

David Peltier identifies the best of breed dividend stocks that will pay a reliable AND significant income stream.

Product Features:
  • Diversified model portfolio of dividend stocks
  • Updates with exact steps to take - BUY, HOLD, SELL
Trifecta Stocks

Every recommendation goes through 3 layers of intense scrutiny—quantitative, fundamental and technical analysis—to maximize profit potential and minimize risk.

Product Features:
  • Model Portfolio
  • Intra Day Trade alerts
  • Access to Quant Ratings
Options Profits

Our options trading pros provide over 100 monthly option trading ideas and strategies to help you become a well-seasoned trader.

Product Features:
  • Actionable options commentary and news
  • Real-time trading community
SYM TRADE IT LAST %CHG
AMWD $64.91 -1.30%
COST $144.90 -0.28%
BTH $4.51 -2.20%
C $58.19 -0.46%
M $67.93 -1.60%

Markets

Chart of I:DJI
DOW 17,540.30 -149.56 -0.85%
S&P 500 2,089.95 -13.89 -0.66%
NASDAQ 5,099.5090 -28.7720 -0.56%

Free Reports

Top Rated Stocks Top Rated Funds Top Rated ETFs