NEW YORK (
) -- Quantitative funds disappointed investors during the financial crisis. The funds use computer programs to pick stocks, and the systems failed badly in 2008 and 2009. But this year, the computers are back on track, and many quant funds rank in the top quarter of their categories.
A leader is
Vanguard Strategic Small-Cap Equity
, which has returned 11.5% this year, outdoing 96% of its small blend competitors. Other funds with strong results include
Bridgeway Small-Cap Value
Fidelity Disciplined Equity
JPMorgan US Small Company
Picking a quant fund is not easy. Concerned about maintaining their competitive edges, managers rarely provide more than general details about the screens that they use. To pick likely winners, look for funds with low expenses and strong long-term records. A fund that fits the bill is
Bridgeway Aggressive Investors 1
, which returned 11.1% annually during the past 15 years, outdoing 96% of its mid-cap growth competitors. Another winner has been
Vanguard Strategic Equity
, which has returned 9.0% annually for the past 15 years, outdoing 63% of mid-cap blend peers.
Quant investing became popular in the 1990s when physicists and mathematicians left college campuses and headed for Wall Street. The quants boasted that they could use their formulas to pick winning stocks. Hedge funds hired the academics, and some of the systems racked up huge profits. But enthusiasm for computerized trading waned when Long-Term Capital Management, a quant hedge fund, exploded in 1998. After markets calmed, institutions again embraced quant managers, pouring billions of dollars into the computerized strategies.
The recent poor results can be traced to the computer models. Many quants follow momentum strategies, buying stocks that have rising prices or accelerating earnings. Stocks that did well in the recent past will continue shining, the quants argue.
Other quant strategies emphasize undervalued stocks with improving earnings. As the financial crisis unfolded, none of the models worked. Momentum stocks suddenly crashed.
In 2008, value stocks of all kinds collapsed as panicked investors sold shaky companies and gravitated to Treasuries and high-quality stocks.
In 2009, the direction shifted violently. Stocks that had been on the verge of bankruptcy came back to life. Companies that had fared poorly in 2008 recorded huge gains during the rebound. That undermined momentum strategies. Stocks with rising earnings trailed companies with no profits at all. Quants were left scratching their heads. "The worse a company did, the more it was rewarded," says John Montgomery, a portfolio manager for Bridgeway Funds.