BALTIMORE (Stockpickr) – Can a 100-year-old investment strategy still make money in today's markets? You bet!
"Dow Theory" is a term that's thrown around quite a bit, in classrooms as well as on trading floors -- but unlike many academic market studies, Dow Theory actually has real world trading implications. Here's a look at how Dow Theory works and why modern traders should be concerned with this century-old trading strategy.
While Charles Dow may be one of the most storied names on Wall Street, many investors don't fully realize the contributions that the Wall Street Journal founder made to modern-day technical analysis. Around the turn of the century, Dow was the foremost expert on broad market movements, creating the first market indices, the Dow Jones Transportation Average (then known as the "rails" index for its exposure to railroad stocks) and the ubiquitous Dow Jones Industrial Average.
Over the course of his career, Charles Dow wrote hundreds of editorials that discussed his take on market structure and price behavior as well as the relationships between his averages. After his death, those editorials were compiled by Dow's successors at the Journal (namely William Peter Hamilton and Robert Rhea) to create Dow Theory as it stands today.
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While not developed as an explicit trading system by Dow, that's exactly what it became in the years after its creation.
Basic Tenants of Dow Theory
While considerable work has been done on Dow Theory, it can be divided into a handful of core tenets. First off, the market is broken down into three different movements of either direction: primary trends, which last for years and are inviolate; secondary or intermediate trends, which last for weeks or months; and minor trends, which last for days or less, and are irrelevant for Dow Theorists.