This post by Jim Cramer appeared earlier today on RealMoney. Click here for a free trial, and enjoy incisive commentary all day, every day.
Does the market have to be so suicidal? Do we have to have a social media rager? You know I like this asset class and what it has done for people. But we never seem to learn, and I find LinkedIn (LNKD) totally painful.
I often hear people come on TV about bubbles that aren't bubbles. How many times have you heard about "the gold bubble"? But we have a limited supply of gold and a seemingly unlimited demand for the stuff. We are increasing our supply of above-ground gold by only about 1% a year -- even after this price rise -- but the demand from investors, from traders, from central banks and even from college endowments is gigantic.
But does anyone think that LinkedIn is that special? Does anyone honestly believe that it is worth $10 billion?
NO.No one. No one in his right mind. Look, every day I get heat for recommending Netflix (NFLX), a much loved service with mass appeal that has rapidly moved to solidify its ownership of the space by rolling out streaming content and moving overseas. It is a well-run and extremely profitable juggernaut. And it is worth $12 billion. I don't know a soul who "loved" LinkedIn. I think that many companies could be LinkedIn. I also think that if LinkedIn is worth $10 billion, Groupon must be worth $100 billion and Facebook will turn out to be one of the most valuable companies on earth. We all know this. We are helpless to stop it, because they only issued a sliver of stock and because of the social media love affair. If only the company had issued many more shares to create a small gain. I still don't think you could have contained the market cap to be something more reasonable, say 4 or 5 times sales -- $25 -- with many millions of shares sold. But this is the worst possible outcome. This is indeed a bubble, and I join the most inveterate bears out there about this silly deal and how it will end. At the time of publication, Cramer had no positions in the stocks mentioned.
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