Looking for the Silver Lining in Cumulus Media
Cumulus' rise this week.
But its troubles aren't over. Cumulus still has a lot of fence-mending to do with Wall Street and a legal battle to fight with shareholders, not to mention investors' across-the-board souring on the radio sector.
Averting DisasterJames Boyle, radio analyst at First Union Securities who issued a blistering report on the company in August after it fell well short of analysts' earnings estimates, is no more sanguine now. "The announcement means they averted disaster," says Boyle. Wall Street's reaction "was not a celebration, but a sigh of relief." That's because the company had put down an unusually hefty down payment to buy the stations -- reportedly some $80 million, or nearly a third of the deal's worth. A more typical down payment for the industry, Boyle says, would be 5%, or around $12 million. If the deal hadn't gone through, Boyle adds, Cumulus would've lost that $80 million.
| Feeling Puffy?
Cumulus losing altitude.
Depth ChargeCumulus ran into trouble because it went on an acquisition spree after going public but lacked the management depth to integrate the new stations, Boyle says. "They bought a lot of stations in a short period of time, and many of those stations were turnarounds." As a result, Cumulus stock began falling. That decline accelerated when the company disclosed in March that it had reported inflated revenue and earnings numbers for the first three quarters of 1999. In April, its auditor, PricewaterhouseCoopers, resigned. The stock plummeted further as furious investors began suing the company over the drop. Those suits have been consolidated into a single action, now pending, that seeks $100 million in damages. Cumulus didn't immediately return calls seeking comment. Cumulus has shuffled its senior management team since being forced to restate its numbers, but Wall Street still raises an eyebrow at its credibility. And in August, Milwaukee-based Cumulus reported a far wider loss for the second quarter than Wall Street had expected, sending its stock deeper into an already deep freeze.
The First StepThe company clearly hopes that Tuesday's announcement will mark the beginning of its journey out of its thicket of legal and financial woes. The deal to acquire Connoisseur's stations, originally announced last November, hinged on Cumulus' ability to come up with the cash. Tuesday, Cumulus said it had received $68.9 million in initial proceeds from its sale of 30 stations to Clear Channel Communications (CCU - Get Report). Cumulus also will transfer 45 stations in eight markets to Clear Channel in exchange for four stations, generating another $52 million in cash. "The net cash raised from these transactions will enable us to complete our pending acquisition pipeline without selling key markets and without having to raise highly dilutive equity," Cumulus CEO Lew Dickey says in a statement. Despite the company's reassurances, First Union's Boyle says the near-term outlook isn't great. "If Q1 and Q2 were tragic, then Q3 and Q4 will be unimpressive," he says. Andrew Marcus, media analyst at Deutsche Banc Alex. Brown, includes Cumulus on his list of media stocks likely to miss third-quarter estimates. Boyle adds that as fears of an ad slowdown continue to depress media stocks, investors are more likely to invest in a blue-chip name like Clear Channel than they are in a "small-market, troubled company with a small float." (Boyle has a neutral rating on the stock; his firm hasn't done any underwriting for the company.)
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