2. Cenovus Energy (CVE) is a Canadian oil-and-gas and oil-sands company. It also has an interest in several U.S.-based refineries, in Texas.
Cenovus shares have appreciated 28% in the past 12 months and are up 7.9% in 2011. Cenovus missed Goldman's first-quarter adjusted earnings and cash flow targets by a significant margin, but Goldman reiterated that Cenovus is a "Conviction List top pick."Goldman sees regulatory approval for its Christina Lake expansion as a catalyst for the stock, in addition to a "top-tier oil-production growth outlook." Like Diamond Offshore and First Solar, Goldman has a six-month, rather than 12-month, target on Cenovus, forecasting that its equity will advance 50% to $54. The stock trades at a premium to peers, at a book value multiple of 3.2 and a cash flow multiple of 10. But, Goldman expects its oil-sands projects to yield significant cash flow in the next 12 months, boosting the share price. Also, "a possible transaction with a third party to 'bring forward' the value of long-dated oil-sands resource" may help investors realize upside.
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