Jim Rogers on Commodity Carnage

Well, say its 4% a year, say they're wrong. I mean in 25 years, Ms. Steel, we won't have any oil at any price unless someone does something very quickly that's all I mean, there's no oil, there's no new oil.

It just seems like if that's the case then natural gas prices should be through the roof in preparation of a lack of oil?

Rogers: Well, there is a short term glut of natural gas, but you're exactly right, people are going to have to use other forms of energy and if I were looking at energy markets right now I would start by looking at natural gas cause its way down and oil is way up.

So how high will oil go on this supply issue?

Rogers: Oh, if I told you how high the price of oil would go over the next decade, you'd stop talking to me, you wouldn't believe me. "He's finally lost it, he's gone over the deep end."

Do the arithmetic. If reserves are going to continue to climb at 4%-5%-6% a year, in 10 years there is going to be very little oil left. Now we would have brought in alternate sources such as natural gas and other things but we are still going to be in a bad bind. Prices are going to be very high.

Eventually prices will go so high that people will probably start finding new oil ... if oil goes to $200, they'll drill on the White House lawn, $300 drill at Buckingham Palace. Hopefully, someday, we'll find more oil, or more sources of energy and people will cut back at the same time.

So natural gas would be the one you'd focus on?

Rogers: I would start by looking at natural gas or maybe uranium. Uranium has been pounded down recently for obvious reasons. It will probably have to sit around on the bottom for a while but that's another place that's very depressed. And we are going to have to have nuclear power whether we like it or not.

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