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Jim Rogers on Commodity Carnage

The moderator said how many of you have ever owned gold? Seventy six percent of them had never owned gold much less silver or soybeans or cotton, so I suspect you don't know anybody who owns silver. Someday you'll know a lot of people who own silver, everybody you know. That will be a bubble, that's the time to sell.

So was silver's parabolic rally we saw then more of a trader bubble?

Rogers: I'm not sure I would call it parabolic, I would certainly call it a spike, it didn't quite reach parabolic status in my view, but it certainly was a gigantic crazy spike. When something goes up 25%-30% in a month, that's something to worry about a great deal. I don't know what caused it maybe it was short covering, maybe it was rumors. I have no idea. I know that 25% in a month is dangerous.

So silver fell 27% last week, was it enough for you to want to buy more?

Rogers: Well, I'm too lazy, I'm doing other things right now, but I hope at some time in the next month or two if it goes down or stays down then I will get the energy to go around and buy some more silver, yes. Or maybe it will go to $25, I don't know

But you didn't sell anything?

Rogers: No, no, no I have not sold any commodities. I protect myself by being short ... in other things. I am nearly always short something. I'm nearly always long something, fortunately my shorts went down too last week.

So what are you short versus long?

Rogers: Well, I'm short emerging markets and I'm short American technology stocks cause those are two areas of the world stock markets that have been very over-exploited in the past two to three years. They're not great bubbles, they're not great shorts, but they're better shorts than nothing.

Then what are you long? Commodities then?

Rogers: I'm long commodities, mainly its commodities and currencies.

Now you've been saying that there is no oil and that's why oil prices are going up. What did you specifically mean by that?

Rogers:Well, there have been no new elephant discoveries in over 40 years. All the great oil fields in the world are in decline now and unless we find a lot of oil quickly then we're not going to have any oil at any price. The International Energy Agency is going around saying "look, the world is running out of known reserves at 6% a year."
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