The following commentary comes from an independent investor or market observer as part of TheStreet's guest contributor program, which is separate from the company's news coverage.
NEW YORK (
) -- Prevailing wisdom suggests that low-volume stock rallies tend to end with a thud. So what should investors make of the fact that the
S&P 500 SPDR Trust
has traded less than the average number of shares for 13 consecutive sessions?
My experience tells me that investors are merely waiting for something... anything... to happen. Perhaps it's clearer guidance from corporations on earnings. Or maybe it's a definitive breakout above the S&P 500's 2011 highs. Or perhaps it's an unexpected move by the
, a government shutdown and/or a country bailout in the eurozone.
On the other hand, what if volume isn't quite as anemic as we're often led to believe? What if trading volume in "risk off" assets like bond ETFs and burrency ETFs were surprisingly robust. Would that make up for the limited shares being traded in "risk on" assets like stock ETFs and commodity ETFs?
Consider the following data:
Interestingly enough, trading volume has picked up in bond ETFs and currency ETFs. If investors are less willing to trade shares of their stock and commodity assets, yet more willing to trade shares of their income assets, bets are still being placed; that is, some folks are heading for the exits on their dollar hedging currencies, while others are just now placing their hedges against the U.S. dollar. Similarly, others may be seeking safety in treasuries while others are just now abandoning the low-yielders.
In sum, I don't think we should be quick to assume that the "risk on" stock/commodity bull is done. Not on low volume, anyway. My "read" is that stockholders and commodity holders are in "wait-and-see" mode. Meanwhile, they've shifted their attention toward taking a stand on U.S. treasuries, investment-grade corporate credit and foreign currency.
My stand on income assets? Forget
iShares Aggregate Bond
and avoid the
CurrencyShares Euro Trust
. Treasury yields are going to rise and the euro's run is close to done. Instead, lean toward
SPDR Convertible Bonds
WisdomTree Emerging Currencies