Strategists routinely make valuation comparisons based on it rhyming with historical experience. Similar to the belief in bell curves, these compares should be viewed with caution, because, in all likelihood, another Black Swan could appear on our investment doorstep -- maybe sooner rather than later!
It truly is different this time.
In this setting, a more conservative asset mix and higher cash position than normal seems to be a prudent strategy.
After all, as Nassim Taleb wrote, we might all be Black Swans.Doug Kass writes daily for RealMoney Silver, a premium bundle service from TheStreet.com. For a free trial to RealMoney Silver and exclusive access to Mr. Kass's daily trading diary, please click here.
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