NEW YORK ( TheStreet) -- Doug Kass of Seabreeze Partners is known for his accurate stock market calls and keen insights into the economy, which he shares with RealMoney Silver readers in "The Edge," his daily trading diary.
This week, Kass wrote about how he'd been overly bearish during the past year, about a favorite insurance stock and about what could be a significant event for Yahoo!.
Originally published on March 2 at 7:01 a.m. EST. I am going to make today's opening missive brief, but my message is significant. The reality is that over the past 12 months I have been far too cautious and dogmatic in my ursine outlook. I moved too far off the reservation and stuck to my views even as cyclical economic conditions changed. (One doesn't have to look much beyond the ISM strength to support the statement that domestic growth has improved markedly.) In support of my bearish investment view, I offered what I thought were a series of logical arguments on why my secular concerns would produce nontraditional challenges to the notion of a smooth and self-sustaining economic recovery that was the foundation of the bullish cabal's baseline case. The fact is, the cyclical recovery in corporate profits has been so strong as to offset some of my concerns. I am not a perma-bear -- I am in this game to make money for my investors and for RealMoolah's subscribers. Nevertheless, my musings over the past year might have led subscribers to conclude that I am indeed a perma-bear. Nor am I bullish. Those nontraditional headwinds, frequently discussed on The Edge, are ever-present and are value-destructive and must be monitored closely as to their effect on the cyclical recovery. Moreover, I remain of the view that some portion of the recovery in the economy, in general, and in personal consumption expenditures, in specific, relates to "recession fatigue." It is important to recognize that numerous sectors in the economy are still operating well below long-term trend lines, and that, in all likelihood, this setup will support some further aggregate growth in the months ahead, even though the nontraditional threats remain a cloud over intermediate-term growth.
Select the service that is right for you!COMPARE ALL SERVICES
- $2.5+ million portfolio
- Large-cap and dividend focus
- Intraday trade alerts from Cramer
- Weekly roundups
Access the tool that DOMINATES the Russell 2000 and the S&P 500.
- Buy, hold, or sell recommendations for over 4,300 stocks
- Unlimited research reports on your favorite stocks
- A custom stock screener
- Upgrade/downgrade alerts
- Diversified model portfolio of dividend stocks
- Alerts when market news affect the portfolio
- Bi-weekly updates with exact steps to take - BUY, HOLD, SELL
- Real Money + Doug Kass Plus 15 more Wall Street Pros
- Intraday commentary & news
- Ultra-actionable trading ideas
- 100+ monthly options trading ideas
- Actionable options commentary & news
- Real-time trading community
- Options TV