Vitamin Shoppe's stock has returned 21% a year, on average, since 2008, beating specialty retail peers. It has advanced an impressive 70% in 12 months and 15% in just three. Of equity researchers evaluating Vitamin Shoppe, eight, or 89%, rate its stock "buy" and one ranks it "hold." None rank the equity "sell." Vitamin Shoppe has a median 12-month target of $37.12, suggesting a looming rise of 10%. Barclays, ranking the stock "overweight", values it at $40, consistent with a 19% gain. JPMorgan, on the other hand, predicts a marginal rise to $35.
The stock is expensive, based on peer valuation metrics, costing 34-times trailing earnings, 21-times forward earnings, 3.4-times book value and 1.3-times sales, premiums of 82%, 29%, 4% and 36% to specialty retail peer averages. Its PEG ratio of 1 indicates that the stock is fairly valued based on terminal growth rate estimates. Vitamin Shoppe's adjusted fourth-quarter earnings more than doubled to 22 cents, exceeding consensus by 4.3%. Its sales, up 11%, beat marginally. The operating margin widened from 5.4% to 6.9%.