Fleckenstein: All Roads Lead to Inflation
I have no clue as to the precise timing of this scenario, since a lot depends on the length and potency of the relief rally in stocks and the economy. However, the relief rally in the dollar has been especially pitiful. Basically, the euro traded from $1.10 to $1.06 in three days, so we had a mild 5% correction, after a nearly 25% move in the euro. And of course, the euro is now back over $1.10.
This suggests to me that the dollar is on borrowed time, and trouble is coming, sooner rather than later. It also means to me that the price of gold has seen its lows. And, while the tsunami of investment demand that I envision may still be months away, I believe the surprises will now all be on the upside for gold.
I would just like to close by leaving you with one of my opening thoughts: In a social democracy with a fiat currency, all roads ultimately lead to inflation.
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