Green Bay Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers (12) scores a touchdown past Chicago Bears safety Danieal Manning (38) during the first half of the NFC Championship NFL football game Sunday in Chicago.
Capital IQ also ran the data against various aspects of the Super Bowl, including high-scoring vs. low-scoring games, AFC versus NFC, city, home vs. away games, and dome or no dome. Several pieces of the data were also positive for bullish investors. For one, if a previous Super Bowl champ wins again, the average market return is 13%. Both the Packers and Steelers have won several NFL title games.
Other trends observed in the data tend to favor the Packers. The market averages a 15% return after an NFC win vs. a 7% return after an AFC win. Capital IQ does note that the best market return (38% in 1995 after the
San Francisco 49ers
San Diego Chargers
) and the worst return (-37% in 2008 when the
New York Giants
New England Patriots
). The Packers are considered the home team in Super Bowl XLV, and the market return averages 17% when the home team wins. Already, Green Bay is favored by 2.5 points by Vegas bookmakers.
Bears -- not the ones from Chicago -- will be happy to know that the investor outlook isn't good for championship games played in Texas. The average returns in the years after games were played in Texas is -8%, ranking as the worst average of any of the seven states that have hosted the Super Bowl, according to Capital IQ's data.
And for all the attention that the new Cowboys Stadium will receive during Super Bowl week, the domed stadium also bodes poorly for the stock market. Jerry Jones' crown jewel does have a retractable roof to go along with the massive high definition video screen, but the data show that Super Bowl games played in domed stadiums precede a market return of only 3%, compared to a 15% return after games played outdoors.
While it may be hard to predict the score of Super Bowl XLV, the market tends to favor higher-scoring games, according to the data. For Super Bowl games resulting in a final total combined score of at least 45 points, the stock market return 17% on average. If the final combined score is under 45, the average market return is 5%.The total points line for the game opened at 46 points, according to Linesmaker.com.
Fans of the
New York Jets
do have a small nugget of good news after the playoff-ending loss to the Steelers late Sunday. The stock market fell by 8% in the lone appearance by Gang Green in Super Bowl III, so a victory in Super Bowl XLV would not have been a good omen for market returns in 2011.
-- Written by Robert Holmes in Boston
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