NEW YORK ( Karvy) -- Novartis (NVS), Teva Pharmaceutical (TEVA), Dr. Reddy's Laboratories (RDY), WuXi PharmaTech (WX) and ShangPharma (SHP) could provide returns in the range of 16% to 25% over the next 12 months based on analysts' consensus estimates.
The global pharmaceutical market is poised to grow 5% to 7% in 2011 to $880 billion, compared with growth in 2010 of 4% to 5%, according to IMS Health. In March 2010, IMS ranked 17 high-growth pharmaceutical markets as pharmemerging -- markets that are expected to grow faster than the overall global market. The countries in this ranking are forecasted to grow at 15% to 17% in 2011 to $180 billion. China, the biggest emerging market pharma country, is expected to be a $50 billion market, growing at 25% to 27% in 2011.
Murray Aitken, senior vice president of IMS, said IMS expects the "pharmerging markets to continue their rapid expansion next year and remain strong sources of growth, and also see the potential for several significant innovative treatment options that are becoming available for patients in areas that include metastatic melanoma, multiple sclerosis and acute coronary syndrome."
We have identified five pharma stocks -- four from emerging-market economies and one from a developed economy -- that are likely to benefit from higher growth rates. The stocks selected are trading at 10 times to 17 times one-year forward earnings and are expected to deliver returns of up to 25%.The stocks are stacked in terms of upside, higher to highest.
5. Novartis is a Switzerland-based holding company that has a broad health care portfolio with core businesses in vaccines, diagnostic tools, generic medicines and consumer health products. During the third quarter, net sales rose 13% year over year to $12.6 billion. Recent acquisitions and new products boosted revenue growth during the quarter, contributing $1.7 billion toward sales, or 30% growth over the prior year. Sandoz, a generic subsidiary of the company, supported the company through new product launches, especially enoxaparin. The acquisition of Alcon (ACL) was completed in August. Volumes overall grew by 11% during the quarter. Net income increased 10% during the quarter. Commenting on the strengthening momentum in the company's product pipeline, Joseph Jimenez, CEO of Novartis, said in a press statement, "Approvals such as Gilenya, a breakthrough first-line oral treatment for multiple sclerosis, and Tasigna, a new first-line treatment for chronic myeloid leukemia, have the potential to change patients' lives. Data on new medicines such as MenB, meningococcal vaccine candidate, give me confidence that our pipeline will continue to deliver/" The stock is trading at 10.9 times its 2011 estimated earnings.
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