WINDERMERE, Fla. (Stockpickr) -- While many market-leading stocks -- look at Priceline.com (PCLN), Baidu.com (BIDU), Wynn Resorts (WYNN) and Apple (AAPL) -- are off to great starts in 2011, one leading sector hasn't been so lucky: gold.
So far in 2011, gold has dropped from over $1,420 an ounce to around current prices near $1,375. Many market pundits are saying that this drop will mark the end of the run for gold, but I think that call is premature. Take a look at gold's chart for the past three months. The shiny yellow metal has basically been in a trading range from $1,430 on the upside to around $1,315 on the downside.
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There are various reasons for gold's poor start in 2011, including continued strength in the dollar, an overcrowded retail trade, better-than-expected economic data that has pushed market players out off commodities -- and some good old-fashioned profit-taking.From a technical standpoint, gold has started to trade below its 50-day moving average of $1,380.25 and its 20-day moving average of $1,389.53. This can often be a warning sign for the future price of any trading vehicle. But gold also has some solid support zones at around $1,360 and even down to $1,330 and the 200-day moving average at $1,265 an ounce. As long as those support zones aren't breached, then I think market players should consider buying gold on this dip instead of shorting or selling. If you're really worried about where gold is going to go in 2011, you might find some comfort in the fact that Goldman Sachs recently raised its price target on gold to $1,690. Goldman thinks gold will hit this target by the end of 2011 due to a low-interest-rate environment in the U.S. The firm also believes that gold could peak at $1,750 an ounce by 2012 as the U.S. moves into full economic recovery mode and interest rates possibly start to go up. Market players need to understand that when commodities pull back, the selloffs are often vicious and can last for longer than many might expect. But if you believe that the longer-term story in gold is still intact, as I do, then you have to use these selloffs to accumulate positions on the cheap. As long as we continue to have a Federal Reserve that is determined to print currency in order to get us out of this economic mess, then gold won't stay down for long.
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