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Orient Paper: Not a Short Squeeze, Yet

Given the moderate volume in the stock, it is clear that the institutions are not jumping back in before the report either. This is one of the few advantages of being a retail investor -- we can make decisions quickly, without taking our decisions to committee and without having a fixed criteria such as "wait until the final report is issued." Incidentally, this same advantage applies to selling stocks as well.

As I recently pointed out in my article on RINO, short attacks typically see a 15% drop upon release of the report. It is only in the subsequent days that the 50-60% plummet happens. I attribute this to the delay by institutional investors in getting committee approval to sell. I expect that many institutions will now be adopting a more accelerated policy when it comes to accusations of fraud allowing them to sell more quickly. So beware, the next short attacks may not give us that 15% window in which to sell.

Regarding institutions, I do note that as of Sept. 30, both Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs had acquired sizable new positions in ONP. Clearly some institutions are willing to do their due diligence ahead of time and buy in early rather than wait for the release of the final report. A link to their holdings can be found here.

So what will the stock do? That is an easy question, sort of. My target price for ONP is $10. That is where institutions were comfortable holding it before the short selling crisis and presumably they should be comfortable holding it (i.e. buying it) at that level now. Particularly given that ONP's future business prospects have improved substantially based on the high margin digital photo paper business and the corrugated business. While Q3 was slow, the prospects going forward are very positive.

However, despite my $10 target, I have cancelled my $10 limit sell order because I think there is some probability of a short squeeze which could drive it well above $10. This is because right now there are no sellers and there will be some desperate buyers. So I don't want to be stopped out at $10. I believe the "right price" is $10 but I am hoping for just a single day where it hits $11.
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